2015 Cliff Keen Las Vegas InvitationalDec 9, 2015 by Christian Pyles
Winners And Losers From CKLV Betting Lines
Winners And Losers From CKLV Betting Lines
Willie approached me about totaling up our hypothetical vegas winnings from last week’s betting lines for Cliff Keen Las Vegas. Throughout the season we’ll run articles with betting lines and our actual bets. We will keep a running total of the savviest gamblers and wrestling minds at FloWrestling.
Below is a bet by bet breakdown from each guy. Of note, if one of the 2 favorites didn’t wrestle (this only occurred at 165 with Bo Jordan) it was a push and you got your money back that you wagered
CP Winnings: $755 - Well whaddya know, ol CP at the top of the heap to get things started. Instead of sprinkling many bets on a few lines I consolidated on the 2 I felt most confident in: Nahshon and Tomasello spending 900 of my 1000 dollars on those two bets. The field against Ian Miller was a popular bet that everyone but Holmes made. Despite no payoff, it was still fantastic odds. Though I should have been tipped off when all these other jokers were laying their money on it.
Won: $0
$100 on the field against Miller at +500. I know that he’s a massive favorite but those odds are too tasty against a guy who has shown he can be upset (Last years loss to Jarrett Jensen comes to mind).
Won: $480
$600 on Nathan Tomasello to win at -125. I just feel that confident in NATO. Let these jokers spread their money around on long shots. I’m taking the free dough with NATO.
Won: $375
$300 on Nahshon to win at +125. I deliberated on picking Garrett to win the weight outright. I think he’s as good a match-up against Brewer as anybody. He’s an underdog, but I give him a real chance.
Holmes' Winnings: 472.61 - Holmes checks in at #2. His downfall was taking no risk and tying up a total of 500 dollars between J’Den and Dean to win a measly 103.29. If he had put more money in his Walz and Nahshon bets he would have likely beaten me.
Won: $46.15
$300 on J’Den Cox at -650. There’s no such thing as a sure thing, but this might be as close as I can get.
Won: $57.14
$200 on Dean at -350. Last year he had a poor showing before regrouping to eventually win everything the rest of the season. I feel that he will be out to make a better appearance this year. He looks to be in great form which he showed last weekend at Grapple at the Garden.
Won: $181.82
$200 on Walz at -110. He has been pretty impressive so far starting by dismantling Coon at the All-Star. No disrespect to anyone else in the bracket, but this is all about Walz here.
Push
$150 on Bo Jo at -125. The family dynamic will be switched early this year. No need to wait until Big 10’s this year.
Won: $187.50
$150 on Nahshon at +125. The weight jump has done him good and I’m sure that he is champing at the bit to get a piece of Brewer. It’s going to be close when they meet, but I feel that Nahshon will pull it out in the end with a crazy scramble.
Willie’s Winnings: $380 - Not too bad for the High School guy. Like Holmes his earnings were limited by pouring 350 bucks on Dean to only win 100. I felt that there were favorites I liked equally with far better payoff potential. So while he was correct on 3 of 4, his risk aversion (or failure to recognize better valued favorites) limited his earnings.
Won: $250
$200 on Nahshon. At +125, I don’t think the odds are that great. I think he should be more of a $150 or $175 type of underdog. But I think Nahshon will be completely dialed in to take out the reigning champ at his new weight, and I think he has the ability to do so.
Won: $200
$220 on Walz at -110. I know Cabell is legit, but I don’t see anyone this side of Gwiz stopping the mountain that is Ty Walz. Same odds as Cabell? I’ll take this all day, and that’s even if Coon eventually registers.
Won: $0
$100 on Butler over Realbuto at +125. The same odds as my Nahshon pick, but probably a more realistic ‘upset’.
Won: $100
$350 on Dean at -350. Along with Ian Miller, Cox and Dean are the clearest/heaviest favorites in the field. Cox has an easier bracket, which is why he’s -$650. But that’s a lot of dough to lay to win $100. There are more landmines in Dean’s 184 bracket, but let’s be honest, this is like a free $100.
That’s a total of $970 worth of wagering. I’ll keep $30 in my pocket so I can drink away my blues when I inevitably lose.
Nick’s “Winnings”: -$40.00 Nick was that guy in the casino asking friends if he could “hold 10 for a bus ride.” Velliquette shot for the moon. This is a guy who aims big and isn’t afraid to stick his neck out there. He called the Mark Hall upset over Valencia when the entire country thought it was Valencia by a mile. Nick was wooed by the field at 157 and dumping 20% of your bankroll can take a toll. Then he homered up for his Missouri guy Cody Brewer. I thought (even in the moment) -300 wasn’t a good enough return considering the field at 133. Isaac Jordan not being challenged by cousin Bo hurt Nick. If Bo competes and Isaac wins, Nick is partying like a rock star with 210 dollars worth of winnings.
Won: $160
$200 on Nathan Tomasello at -125. How do you not like a returning national champion for an 80% return on your money?
Won: $0
$200 on Cody Brewer at -300. He has been dominant and will continue to be dominant at this weight class.
Won: $0
$200 on the field at 157 at +500. The payoff is too great not to take everyone in the field against Ian Miller.
Push
$200 on Isaac Jordan at +125. He didn’t have the national tournament that he wanted, but he did beat Bo at Big Tens. To get him at plus money is just too much value to pass up.
Won: $0
$200 on the field at 184 at +300. Purely a value bet. Gabe Dean did slip up here last year and the field is +300. To get Stauffer, Courts, and Miklus in the field is too good to pass up.
Brock’s “Winnings”: -56.82 Brock was too enamored with chasing “value” instead of picking winners. When he did side with a favorite it was Micah at -275. Not a huge payoff there. Betting 200 on Ty Walz helped him from having to pick up part-time work to pay off his gambling debts, but not much else. Fortunately one of the teams competing at CKLV allowed him to stowaway in their rental car back to the airport. Otherwise Brock was stuck in Vegas dealing blackjack.
Push
$200 on Bo Jordan at -125. I like Bo over Isaac here to regain family supremacy. This line is favorable because of Isaac’s win at big tens.
Won: $0
$100 on the field at 157 +500. Ian Miller has as much talent as anyone in the country, but he does slip up here and there to lesser competition.
Won: $100
$275 on Micah Jordan at -275. He is a heavy favorite, but has looked outstanding so far this year.
Won: $0
$25 on the field at 133 at +500. Seeds will play an important role here and Brewer has looked amazing so far this year. There is value with this bet, but obviously I don’t have a lot of confidence in it.
Won: $181.82
$200 on Ty Walz -110. He has looked too good so far to not place a wager on him to avenge some losses to Cabell.
Won: $0
$200 on Joey Dance +150. This is good value at +150 in my opinion. I think he could win this four out of ten times which is the exact value of a +150 bet.
Won: $0
$100 on The Field at 157 at +500. Ian Miller is far and away the best here. But at +500 it’s hard not to take this value bet against someone who may not be in shape early in the year and who has some weird losses. I expect Miller to win, but laying $100 to win $500 in the event that ANYTHING else happens is just to tasty.
So there's the breakdown and the current FloWagering standings are as follows:
1. CP $755
2. Holmes $472.61
3. Willie $380
4. Nick $-40.00
5. Brock $-56.82
Below is a bet by bet breakdown from each guy. Of note, if one of the 2 favorites didn’t wrestle (this only occurred at 165 with Bo Jordan) it was a push and you got your money back that you wagered
CP Winnings: $755 - Well whaddya know, ol CP at the top of the heap to get things started. Instead of sprinkling many bets on a few lines I consolidated on the 2 I felt most confident in: Nahshon and Tomasello spending 900 of my 1000 dollars on those two bets. The field against Ian Miller was a popular bet that everyone but Holmes made. Despite no payoff, it was still fantastic odds. Though I should have been tipped off when all these other jokers were laying their money on it.
Won: $0
$100 on the field against Miller at +500. I know that he’s a massive favorite but those odds are too tasty against a guy who has shown he can be upset (Last years loss to Jarrett Jensen comes to mind).
Won: $480
$600 on Nathan Tomasello to win at -125. I just feel that confident in NATO. Let these jokers spread their money around on long shots. I’m taking the free dough with NATO.
Won: $375
$300 on Nahshon to win at +125. I deliberated on picking Garrett to win the weight outright. I think he’s as good a match-up against Brewer as anybody. He’s an underdog, but I give him a real chance.
Holmes' Winnings: 472.61 - Holmes checks in at #2. His downfall was taking no risk and tying up a total of 500 dollars between J’Den and Dean to win a measly 103.29. If he had put more money in his Walz and Nahshon bets he would have likely beaten me.
Won: $46.15
$300 on J’Den Cox at -650. There’s no such thing as a sure thing, but this might be as close as I can get.
Won: $57.14
$200 on Dean at -350. Last year he had a poor showing before regrouping to eventually win everything the rest of the season. I feel that he will be out to make a better appearance this year. He looks to be in great form which he showed last weekend at Grapple at the Garden.
Won: $181.82
$200 on Walz at -110. He has been pretty impressive so far starting by dismantling Coon at the All-Star. No disrespect to anyone else in the bracket, but this is all about Walz here.
Push
$150 on Bo Jo at -125. The family dynamic will be switched early this year. No need to wait until Big 10’s this year.
Won: $187.50
$150 on Nahshon at +125. The weight jump has done him good and I’m sure that he is champing at the bit to get a piece of Brewer. It’s going to be close when they meet, but I feel that Nahshon will pull it out in the end with a crazy scramble.
Willie’s Winnings: $380 - Not too bad for the High School guy. Like Holmes his earnings were limited by pouring 350 bucks on Dean to only win 100. I felt that there were favorites I liked equally with far better payoff potential. So while he was correct on 3 of 4, his risk aversion (or failure to recognize better valued favorites) limited his earnings.
Won: $250
$200 on Nahshon. At +125, I don’t think the odds are that great. I think he should be more of a $150 or $175 type of underdog. But I think Nahshon will be completely dialed in to take out the reigning champ at his new weight, and I think he has the ability to do so.
Won: $200
$220 on Walz at -110. I know Cabell is legit, but I don’t see anyone this side of Gwiz stopping the mountain that is Ty Walz. Same odds as Cabell? I’ll take this all day, and that’s even if Coon eventually registers.
Won: $0
$100 on Butler over Realbuto at +125. The same odds as my Nahshon pick, but probably a more realistic ‘upset’.
Won: $100
$350 on Dean at -350. Along with Ian Miller, Cox and Dean are the clearest/heaviest favorites in the field. Cox has an easier bracket, which is why he’s -$650. But that’s a lot of dough to lay to win $100. There are more landmines in Dean’s 184 bracket, but let’s be honest, this is like a free $100.
That’s a total of $970 worth of wagering. I’ll keep $30 in my pocket so I can drink away my blues when I inevitably lose.
Nick’s “Winnings”: -$40.00 Nick was that guy in the casino asking friends if he could “hold 10 for a bus ride.” Velliquette shot for the moon. This is a guy who aims big and isn’t afraid to stick his neck out there. He called the Mark Hall upset over Valencia when the entire country thought it was Valencia by a mile. Nick was wooed by the field at 157 and dumping 20% of your bankroll can take a toll. Then he homered up for his Missouri guy Cody Brewer. I thought (even in the moment) -300 wasn’t a good enough return considering the field at 133. Isaac Jordan not being challenged by cousin Bo hurt Nick. If Bo competes and Isaac wins, Nick is partying like a rock star with 210 dollars worth of winnings.
Won: $160
$200 on Nathan Tomasello at -125. How do you not like a returning national champion for an 80% return on your money?
Won: $0
$200 on Cody Brewer at -300. He has been dominant and will continue to be dominant at this weight class.
Won: $0
$200 on the field at 157 at +500. The payoff is too great not to take everyone in the field against Ian Miller.
Push
$200 on Isaac Jordan at +125. He didn’t have the national tournament that he wanted, but he did beat Bo at Big Tens. To get him at plus money is just too much value to pass up.
Won: $0
$200 on the field at 184 at +300. Purely a value bet. Gabe Dean did slip up here last year and the field is +300. To get Stauffer, Courts, and Miklus in the field is too good to pass up.
Brock’s “Winnings”: -56.82 Brock was too enamored with chasing “value” instead of picking winners. When he did side with a favorite it was Micah at -275. Not a huge payoff there. Betting 200 on Ty Walz helped him from having to pick up part-time work to pay off his gambling debts, but not much else. Fortunately one of the teams competing at CKLV allowed him to stowaway in their rental car back to the airport. Otherwise Brock was stuck in Vegas dealing blackjack.
Push
$200 on Bo Jordan at -125. I like Bo over Isaac here to regain family supremacy. This line is favorable because of Isaac’s win at big tens.
Won: $0
$100 on the field at 157 +500. Ian Miller has as much talent as anyone in the country, but he does slip up here and there to lesser competition.
Won: $100
$275 on Micah Jordan at -275. He is a heavy favorite, but has looked outstanding so far this year.
Won: $0
$25 on the field at 133 at +500. Seeds will play an important role here and Brewer has looked amazing so far this year. There is value with this bet, but obviously I don’t have a lot of confidence in it.
Won: $181.82
$200 on Ty Walz -110. He has looked too good so far to not place a wager on him to avenge some losses to Cabell.
Won: $0
$200 on Joey Dance +150. This is good value at +150 in my opinion. I think he could win this four out of ten times which is the exact value of a +150 bet.
Won: $0
$100 on The Field at 157 at +500. Ian Miller is far and away the best here. But at +500 it’s hard not to take this value bet against someone who may not be in shape early in the year and who has some weird losses. I expect Miller to win, but laying $100 to win $500 in the event that ANYTHING else happens is just to tasty.
So there's the breakdown and the current FloWagering standings are as follows:
1. CP $755
2. Holmes $472.61
3. Willie $380
4. Nick $-40.00
5. Brock $-56.82