2016 Cliff Keen Las Vegas InviteDec 1, 2016 by Christian Pyles
Cliff Keen Las Vegas Upper-Weight Preview
Cliff Keen Las Vegas Upper-Weight Preview
An incredible 28 ranked wrestlers will take the mat across four upper-weight classes at the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational on Friday and Saturday.
Some of the deepest weights of the entire Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational are contained in these upper weights.
We've got All-Americans pre-seeded as low as seventh in some weights, and an incredible 28 ranked wrestlers will take the mat across four classes at the Las Vegas Convention Center on Friday and Saturday.
Pre-Seeds
1. Bo Jordan, Ohio State
2. Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
3. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
4. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
5. Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
6. Jadaen Bernstein, Navy
7. Jim Wilson, Stanford
8. Nick Wanzek, Minnesota
9. Myles Amine, Michigan
10. Ryan Christensen, Wisconsin
Ranked Wrestlers
No. 5 Brian Realbuto, Cornell
No. 7 Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
No. 13 Jim Wilson, Stanford
No. 14 Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
No. 15 Jadaen Bernstein, Navy
No. 17 Nick Wanzek, Minnesota
No. 19 Ryan Christensen, Wisconsin
So no, we won't get the match we were looking for (Bo Jo vs. Zahid). But perhaps I am being overly presumptuous in assuming that match would even happen. The great thing about CKLV is there is never a shortage of marquee matchups.
Enter Brian Realbuto and Zahid Valencia.
Should both navigate these fields like we expect, this will undoubtedly be the biggest test of Valencia's folkstyle career. Realbuto's high crotch and scrambling will be a unique test for Valencia. When you consider the NCAA finalist's top game, things get even more interesting. Realbuto typically can wrestle a high pace for seven minutes. We have multiple instances (as recent as November) of Valencia struggling to finish matches. The question is can Realbuto stress Valencia like Ethan Ramos did?
Realbuto has a strong, heavy right leg lead. This is where I see the match going down. Valencia will get to his sweep to that leg, no question. The match will be won and lost in his ability to finish. If he finishes half or so of his attempts, he'll win. If Valencia gets stalemated or countered, I'll give it to Realbuto.
One interesting stat about Realbuto since he moved up to 174 is that he only has defeated one All-American at this weight, an up-and-down Casey Kent. While wins over Blaise Butler (former 157-pounder) and Chandler Rogers (current 165-pounder) are nice, it's still pretty inconclusive after 35 matches at 174 if Realbuto is the same guy he was at 157. There's starting to be mounting evidence that he's not.
The question is, how real is Valencia? I'm bullish on the Sun Devil but more cautiously so after his scare against Ramos. I'm not sure if it's out on a limb or conventional wisdom to pick Valencia over Realbuto, but I'm going to do it. I can't have it both ways and pick the guy to get second at NCAAs but lose to Realbuto at CKLV.
Lost in this Realbuto/Valencia discussion are a few tough 174-pounders in Lelund Weatherspoon (who beat Realbuto last year), Jadaen Bernstein (beat the aforementioned Ethan Ramos) and Jim Wilson (former All-American at 165). I don't think Weatherspoon has looked like the same wrestler we saw last year at NCAAs. Though if there's one thing we do know about Lelund, it's that when he's on, he's dangerous. He might just be due.
CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
2. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
3. Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
4. Jadaen Bernstein, Navy
5. Jim Wilson, Stanford
6. Nick Wanzek, Minnesota
Weatherspoon downs Realbuto at 2016 NCAAs:
Pre-Seeds
1. Gabe Dean, Cornell
2. Myles Martin, Ohio State
3. Patrick Downey, Iowa State
4. Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
5. Jordan Ellingwood, Central Michigan
6. Steve Schneider, Binghamton
7. Corey Griego, Oregon State
Ranked Wrestlers
No. 1 Gabe Dean, Cornell
No. 2 Myles Martin, Ohio State
No. 9 Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
No. 12 Jordan Ellingwood, Central Michigan
No. 15 Corey Griego, Oregon State
No. 18 Steven Schneider, Binghamton
This weight enters with a few interesting plots. Though we've seen Gabe Dean falter here at CKLV before, the question still is: Can anyone keep it close with this guy? In November alone, we've watched Dean pour it on late against NCAA champion Myles Martin and most recently against Rutgers' Nick Gravina (14 unanswered in the third). So for the field, you presume it's Dean then everyone else. I agree.
So then we look down a rung to the Myles Martin/Zack Zavatsky dynamic. It's an intriguing matchup and one that on paper may not stand out, but to me it does. Coming into NCAAs, these two were having similar seasons (at two different weights). Zavatsky had two wins over NCAA third-place finisher Pete Renda as well as All-American's Mat Miller, Willie Miklus, Vic Avery, and Blake Stauffer. Martin had knocked off Nate Jackson and Casey Kent. They both took some losses: Zavatsky fell to Utley and McCutcheon, while Martin lost to Mike Ottinger and Davonte Mahomes.
So you can see coming into NCAAs last year, we have two fairly similar wrestlers, with perhaps a slight edge to Zavatsky. Then NCAAs happen. Zavatsky falls to NCAA finalist Nate Brown and Renda (who he had two wins over previously) and Martin stuns everyone taking out Bo Nickal.
My point is these two are very close, and there's a strong chance that Zavatsky could be the overall better guy. He is established at this weight, can match Martin's athleticism and likely has a slight advantage on the mat. I still believe that Martin is the better guy and will pick him, but this match has to be on your radar. It will be an excellent measuring stick for Martin, who is working to prove himself at a new weight class.
So is it a battle for second? I believe that it is. At this point neither Zavatsky nor Martin possess the necessary motor and horsepower to go seven minutes with Dean. What may look like a close match early could get out of hand quickly late. Zavatsky's top game and scrambling might present more issues than Martin's, but I don't think we'll see that match.
CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Gabe Dean, Cornell
2. Myles Martin, Ohio State
3. Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
4. Jordan Ellingwood, Central Michigan
5. Corey Griego, Oregon State
6. Hunter Ritter, Wisconsin
Upsets have happened to Gabe Dean before at CKLV:
Pre-Seeds
1. Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
2. Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
3. Jake Smith, West Virginia
4. Kollin Moore, Ohio State
5. Ricky Robertson, Wisconsin
6. Tom Sleigh, Bucknell
7. Matt Williams, CSU Bakersfield
8. Rocco Caywood, Army
9. Parker Hines, Air Force
Ranked Wrestlers
No. 2 Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
No. 3 Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
No. 8 Jake Smith, West Virginia
No. 13 Kollin Moore, Ohio State
No. 14 Jeric Kasunic, American
No. 16 Parker Hines, Air Force
No. 18 Matt Williams, CSU Bakersfield
No. 19 Rocco Caywood, Army
No. 20 Tom Sleigh, Bucknell
I really love this weight. Brett Pfarr is a treat to watch. His counters against Preston Weigel were really impressive. Not many guys go from defending a standing single to on top for two as effortlessly as Pfarr. We know J'den Cox is isolated on an island in the 197-pound weight class, but I wonder if Pfarr finds himself on a similar island. Not near Cox, but perhaps removed from the rest of the field. With the constituency here at CKLV, I think we'll find that out.
Kollin Moore is one of the bigger stories of this weight. Nobody is really quite sure what he is at this point? Is he a solid NCAA qualifier? A low-mid AA or someone who can enter the top four? Whatever is the case will have huge ramifications for Ohio State in the team race. I believe the Buckeyes will need strong contributions in March from Moore to contend with Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa. He's shown a real variety in his attacks, but I wonder if some of that was him getting to show that arsenal because of the competition. If he can penetrate this top three, it will say a lot about his prospects.
Jared Haught turned some heads when he held Cox, an Olympic bronze medalist, to a 2-0 decision. While moral victories mean little, it does put him in a tier that makes you think he can potentially challenge Pfarr. Another native West Virginian, Jake Smith looms in this field. Smith is positionally sound, but is reluctant to attack. Against a Kollin Moore type, who will attack in volume, I wonder if Smith struggles to maintain his more methodical style.
I think there is separation from No. 4 and below in the weight class. Moore or Smith are apart from this field and won't be tested from the No. 5 and beyond competitors.
We've seen the Pfarr/Haught showdown before, and while Haught rarely gives up points, I don't see where his offense will come from. His inside reach single is beautiful but finishing can be a chore. That's not a good place to be against Pfarr.
CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
2. Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
3. Kollin Moore, Ohio State
4. Jake Smith, West Virginia
5. Ricky Robertson, Wisconsin
6. Jeric Kasunic, American
Pfarr downs Haught at CKLV:
Pre-Seeds
1. Kyle Snyder, Ohio State
2. Connor Medbery, Wisconsin
3. Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
4. Tanner Hall, Arizona State
5. Michael Kroells, Minnesota
6. Nathan Butler, Stanford
7. Billy Miller, Edinboro
8. Jeramy Sweany, Cornell
Ranked Wrestlers
No. 2 Connor Medbery, Wisconsin
No. 3 Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
No. 4 Tanner Hall, Arizona State
No. 5 Michael Kroells, Minnesota
No. 10 Nathan Butler, Stanford
No. 11 Billy Miller, Edinboro
Can you imagine if Kyle Snyder DID come? Holy smokes. As it stands we'll still have Nos. 2-5 in the mix. Where Tanner Hall fits in this pecking order is very interesting to me. I thought he wrestled Connor Medbery pretty tough at Journeymen. Yet I don't see a path to victory for Hall this time around. In their earlier meeting, Ty Walz had issues with the size of Medbery in my estimation. I doubt Medbery has shrunk anytime soon.
I believe Medbery is the class of this weight and will be an interesting threat to Snyder because of his athleticism. So I'm pretty bummed that we'll have to wait until either the Jan. 6 dual (who knows if Snyder will be there) or at worst, Big Tens.
Walz and Hall have some history, but it's been narrow victories both times for Walz. While Hall has undoubtedly improved, I'm not anticipating a complete sea change there. I'll take Walz until further notice.
At Daktronics, Michael Kroells and Hall had a 50 OT snoozer that Hall eventually won. If it happens again, let's hope for some more neutral output or at least some cattle prods in the form of stall calls. Given how Kroells looked against Austin Schafer, I wouldn't expect a reversal of outcomes.
As deep as this weight is, I really think the pecking order is defined and not likely to be deviated from. The only question I have is if Kroells can hang on to the four spot, or will he fall again to a lower-ranked guy such as Nathan Butler or Billy Miller.
CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Connor Medbery, Wisconsin
2. Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
3. Tanner Hall, Arizona State
4. Nathan Butler, Stanford
5. Michael Kroells, Minnesota
6. Billy Miller, Edinboro
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We've got All-Americans pre-seeded as low as seventh in some weights, and an incredible 28 ranked wrestlers will take the mat across four classes at the Las Vegas Convention Center on Friday and Saturday.
174 Pounds
Pre-Seeds
2. Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
3. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
4. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
5. Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
6. Jadaen Bernstein, Navy
7. Jim Wilson, Stanford
8. Nick Wanzek, Minnesota
9. Myles Amine, Michigan
10. Ryan Christensen, Wisconsin
Ranked Wrestlers
No. 5 Brian Realbuto, Cornell
No. 7 Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
No. 13 Jim Wilson, Stanford
No. 14 Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
No. 15 Jadaen Bernstein, Navy
No. 17 Nick Wanzek, Minnesota
No. 19 Ryan Christensen, Wisconsin
So no, we won't get the match we were looking for (Bo Jo vs. Zahid). But perhaps I am being overly presumptuous in assuming that match would even happen. The great thing about CKLV is there is never a shortage of marquee matchups.
Enter Brian Realbuto and Zahid Valencia.
Should both navigate these fields like we expect, this will undoubtedly be the biggest test of Valencia's folkstyle career. Realbuto's high crotch and scrambling will be a unique test for Valencia. When you consider the NCAA finalist's top game, things get even more interesting. Realbuto typically can wrestle a high pace for seven minutes. We have multiple instances (as recent as November) of Valencia struggling to finish matches. The question is can Realbuto stress Valencia like Ethan Ramos did?
Realbuto has a strong, heavy right leg lead. This is where I see the match going down. Valencia will get to his sweep to that leg, no question. The match will be won and lost in his ability to finish. If he finishes half or so of his attempts, he'll win. If Valencia gets stalemated or countered, I'll give it to Realbuto.
One interesting stat about Realbuto since he moved up to 174 is that he only has defeated one All-American at this weight, an up-and-down Casey Kent. While wins over Blaise Butler (former 157-pounder) and Chandler Rogers (current 165-pounder) are nice, it's still pretty inconclusive after 35 matches at 174 if Realbuto is the same guy he was at 157. There's starting to be mounting evidence that he's not.
The question is, how real is Valencia? I'm bullish on the Sun Devil but more cautiously so after his scare against Ramos. I'm not sure if it's out on a limb or conventional wisdom to pick Valencia over Realbuto, but I'm going to do it. I can't have it both ways and pick the guy to get second at NCAAs but lose to Realbuto at CKLV.
Lost in this Realbuto/Valencia discussion are a few tough 174-pounders in Lelund Weatherspoon (who beat Realbuto last year), Jadaen Bernstein (beat the aforementioned Ethan Ramos) and Jim Wilson (former All-American at 165). I don't think Weatherspoon has looked like the same wrestler we saw last year at NCAAs. Though if there's one thing we do know about Lelund, it's that when he's on, he's dangerous. He might just be due.
CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
2. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
3. Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
4. Jadaen Bernstein, Navy
5. Jim Wilson, Stanford
6. Nick Wanzek, Minnesota
Weatherspoon downs Realbuto at 2016 NCAAs:
184 Pounds
Pre-Seeds
1. Gabe Dean, Cornell
2. Myles Martin, Ohio State
3. Patrick Downey, Iowa State
4. Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
5. Jordan Ellingwood, Central Michigan
6. Steve Schneider, Binghamton
7. Corey Griego, Oregon State
Ranked Wrestlers
No. 1 Gabe Dean, Cornell
No. 2 Myles Martin, Ohio State
No. 9 Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
No. 12 Jordan Ellingwood, Central Michigan
No. 15 Corey Griego, Oregon State
No. 18 Steven Schneider, Binghamton
This weight enters with a few interesting plots. Though we've seen Gabe Dean falter here at CKLV before, the question still is: Can anyone keep it close with this guy? In November alone, we've watched Dean pour it on late against NCAA champion Myles Martin and most recently against Rutgers' Nick Gravina (14 unanswered in the third). So for the field, you presume it's Dean then everyone else. I agree.
So then we look down a rung to the Myles Martin/Zack Zavatsky dynamic. It's an intriguing matchup and one that on paper may not stand out, but to me it does. Coming into NCAAs, these two were having similar seasons (at two different weights). Zavatsky had two wins over NCAA third-place finisher Pete Renda as well as All-American's Mat Miller, Willie Miklus, Vic Avery, and Blake Stauffer. Martin had knocked off Nate Jackson and Casey Kent. They both took some losses: Zavatsky fell to Utley and McCutcheon, while Martin lost to Mike Ottinger and Davonte Mahomes.
So you can see coming into NCAAs last year, we have two fairly similar wrestlers, with perhaps a slight edge to Zavatsky. Then NCAAs happen. Zavatsky falls to NCAA finalist Nate Brown and Renda (who he had two wins over previously) and Martin stuns everyone taking out Bo Nickal.
My point is these two are very close, and there's a strong chance that Zavatsky could be the overall better guy. He is established at this weight, can match Martin's athleticism and likely has a slight advantage on the mat. I still believe that Martin is the better guy and will pick him, but this match has to be on your radar. It will be an excellent measuring stick for Martin, who is working to prove himself at a new weight class.
So is it a battle for second? I believe that it is. At this point neither Zavatsky nor Martin possess the necessary motor and horsepower to go seven minutes with Dean. What may look like a close match early could get out of hand quickly late. Zavatsky's top game and scrambling might present more issues than Martin's, but I don't think we'll see that match.
CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Gabe Dean, Cornell
2. Myles Martin, Ohio State
3. Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
4. Jordan Ellingwood, Central Michigan
5. Corey Griego, Oregon State
6. Hunter Ritter, Wisconsin
Upsets have happened to Gabe Dean before at CKLV:
197 Pounds
Pre-Seeds
1. Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
2. Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
3. Jake Smith, West Virginia
4. Kollin Moore, Ohio State
5. Ricky Robertson, Wisconsin
6. Tom Sleigh, Bucknell
7. Matt Williams, CSU Bakersfield
8. Rocco Caywood, Army
9. Parker Hines, Air Force
Ranked Wrestlers
No. 2 Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
No. 3 Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
No. 8 Jake Smith, West Virginia
No. 13 Kollin Moore, Ohio State
No. 14 Jeric Kasunic, American
No. 16 Parker Hines, Air Force
No. 18 Matt Williams, CSU Bakersfield
No. 19 Rocco Caywood, Army
No. 20 Tom Sleigh, Bucknell
I really love this weight. Brett Pfarr is a treat to watch. His counters against Preston Weigel were really impressive. Not many guys go from defending a standing single to on top for two as effortlessly as Pfarr. We know J'den Cox is isolated on an island in the 197-pound weight class, but I wonder if Pfarr finds himself on a similar island. Not near Cox, but perhaps removed from the rest of the field. With the constituency here at CKLV, I think we'll find that out.
Kollin Moore is one of the bigger stories of this weight. Nobody is really quite sure what he is at this point? Is he a solid NCAA qualifier? A low-mid AA or someone who can enter the top four? Whatever is the case will have huge ramifications for Ohio State in the team race. I believe the Buckeyes will need strong contributions in March from Moore to contend with Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa. He's shown a real variety in his attacks, but I wonder if some of that was him getting to show that arsenal because of the competition. If he can penetrate this top three, it will say a lot about his prospects.
Jared Haught turned some heads when he held Cox, an Olympic bronze medalist, to a 2-0 decision. While moral victories mean little, it does put him in a tier that makes you think he can potentially challenge Pfarr. Another native West Virginian, Jake Smith looms in this field. Smith is positionally sound, but is reluctant to attack. Against a Kollin Moore type, who will attack in volume, I wonder if Smith struggles to maintain his more methodical style.
I think there is separation from No. 4 and below in the weight class. Moore or Smith are apart from this field and won't be tested from the No. 5 and beyond competitors.
We've seen the Pfarr/Haught showdown before, and while Haught rarely gives up points, I don't see where his offense will come from. His inside reach single is beautiful but finishing can be a chore. That's not a good place to be against Pfarr.
CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
2. Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
3. Kollin Moore, Ohio State
4. Jake Smith, West Virginia
5. Ricky Robertson, Wisconsin
6. Jeric Kasunic, American
Pfarr downs Haught at CKLV:
285 Pounds
Pre-Seeds
3. Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
4. Tanner Hall, Arizona State
5. Michael Kroells, Minnesota
6. Nathan Butler, Stanford
7. Billy Miller, Edinboro
8. Jeramy Sweany, Cornell
Ranked Wrestlers
No. 2 Connor Medbery, Wisconsin
No. 3 Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
No. 4 Tanner Hall, Arizona State
No. 5 Michael Kroells, Minnesota
No. 10 Nathan Butler, Stanford
No. 11 Billy Miller, Edinboro
Can you imagine if Kyle Snyder DID come? Holy smokes. As it stands we'll still have Nos. 2-5 in the mix. Where Tanner Hall fits in this pecking order is very interesting to me. I thought he wrestled Connor Medbery pretty tough at Journeymen. Yet I don't see a path to victory for Hall this time around. In their earlier meeting, Ty Walz had issues with the size of Medbery in my estimation. I doubt Medbery has shrunk anytime soon.
I believe Medbery is the class of this weight and will be an interesting threat to Snyder because of his athleticism. So I'm pretty bummed that we'll have to wait until either the Jan. 6 dual (who knows if Snyder will be there) or at worst, Big Tens.
Walz and Hall have some history, but it's been narrow victories both times for Walz. While Hall has undoubtedly improved, I'm not anticipating a complete sea change there. I'll take Walz until further notice.
At Daktronics, Michael Kroells and Hall had a 50 OT snoozer that Hall eventually won. If it happens again, let's hope for some more neutral output or at least some cattle prods in the form of stall calls. Given how Kroells looked against Austin Schafer, I wouldn't expect a reversal of outcomes.
As deep as this weight is, I really think the pecking order is defined and not likely to be deviated from. The only question I have is if Kroells can hang on to the four spot, or will he fall again to a lower-ranked guy such as Nathan Butler or Billy Miller.
CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Connor Medbery, Wisconsin
2. Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
3. Tanner Hall, Arizona State
4. Nathan Butler, Stanford
5. Michael Kroells, Minnesota
6. Billy Miller, Edinboro
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