The debate for which regular season tournament is the toughest is always a fun topic of discussion. Each and every year, Cliff Keen Las Vegas is at or very near the top of the list. It packs both the depth and high-end talent that make this a great early-season barometer for many individuals.  

Action starts Friday, December 2, and you can watch every match live on FloWrestling and follow the tournament on FloArena.

125 Contenders

No. 2 Joey Dance, Virginia Tech
No. 4 Connor Schram, Stanford
No. 13 Joshua Terao, American
No. 15 Dalton Macri, Cornell
No. 17 Sean Russell, Edinboro
No. 20 Austin Assad, Michigan
Jose Rodriguez, Ohio State
Brent Fleetwood, Central Michigan

Joey Dance has been in the finals the past two years at Cliff Keen Las Vegas. He lost to NCAA champions Nahshon Garrett and Nathan Tomasello, respectively. This year, I think Dance is likely to get over the hump and get the CKLV title.

His toughest competition will likely come from Connor Schram, whose style will keep him in the match. Dance is not likely to score multiple takedowns on a top five guy. He has shown that in the past, but typically it's a one or two TD match. When you factor in Schram's defense and top game, I think he can keep it close.  

Ohio State fans are anxious to see how Jose Rodriguez will stack up at 125 this year for the Buckeyes. He enters the field that will have six other ranked competitors. The opportunity for Rodriguez to get himself ranked will be there. He's been impressive thus far and has lost only one match, a one-point defeat at the hands of All-American Darian Cruz.  

Dalton Macri missed the Grapple at the Garden for Cornell, so I'm curious if he'll compete. He suffered a brutal loss to Vargas a few weeks back. This will be an opportunity for the Big Red sophomore to rebound. Austin Assad will compete in his first competitive tournament wearing the Michigan singlet.  

I see this going Dance's way. He's looked solid so far this season, earning a dominating win over then-No. 2 Dylan Peters. Outside of NCAAs, there's typically only a handful of guys who can compete with Dance, and I don't think Schram has the neutral offense to challenge him. Dance will convert a leg attack or maybe a slide by into a takedown, which will likely be enough.

CP's Predictions:
1. Joey Dance, Virginia Tech
2. Connor Schram, Stanford
3. Dalton Macri, Cornell
4. Josh Terao, American
5. Jose Rodriguez, Ohio State
6. Sean Russell, Edinboro

133 Contenders

No. 2 Nathan Tomasello, Ohio State
No. 5 Earl Hall, Iowa State
No. 10 Stevan Micic, Michigan
No. 13 Drew Templeman, Wyoming
No. 17 Mark Grey, Cornell
Anthony Tutolo, Kent St
Mitch McKee, Minnesota
Ali Naser, Arizona State

If you've read or listened to anything 133-related, you know I'm all in on a big year for Nathan Tomasello. Coming off of surgery, it will be trial by fire for the NCAA champ. Tomasello's first competition will have some talent, but not likely anyone who can challenge him score for score.  

For me, the intrigue lies in the 133 semifinal between Steven Micic and Earl Hall. If the tournament is seeded like I expect, we could be in for a great one. Hall can score about 10 different ways. Upper body, several leg attacks and tilts on top are just a few of his scoring combos. Micic is great from ties and can get to the legs consistently with elbow control.  

Mitch McKee and Ali Naser are solid unranked guys who may struggle to earn a seed but will not be a coveted draw by any of the elite 133s. Though Micic took a loss to Brendan Fitzgerald, I don't see anyone from outside this top three being challenged by anyone below.  

I'm taking a flier on Micic over Hall. Though Micic's propensity to give up a big move is troubling, I'm expecting him to pick his spots and negotiate his way to a few takedowns against Hall. Whether it's Hall, Micic, or someone who pulled an upset, I don't see anyone truly challenging Tomasello. I'm not worried about rust for Tomasello. I think he'll consistently get to his high crotch, single, and go-behinds against either guy.

CP's Predictions:
1. Nathan Tomasello, Ohio State
2. Stevan Micic, Michigan
3. Earl Hall, Iowa State
4. Mark Grey, Cornell
5. Ali Naser, Arizona State
6. Drew Templeman, Wyoming

141 Predictions

No. 2 Joey McKenna, Stanford
No. 11 Bryce Meredith, Wyoming
No. 12 Logan Everett, Army
No. 13 Ke-Shawn Hayes, Ohio State
No. 14 Brock Zacherl, Clarion
No. 15 Joey Palmer, Oregon State
No. 17 Tyler Smith, Bucknell
No. 18 Kyle Springer, EMU
No. 20 Jared Prince, Navy
Dennis Gustafson, Virginia Tech

Whoa boy. This is a meat-grinder (wait until you get to 174 though). With eight ranked guys in the mix, this weight is set up for tough competition in the early rounds. Someone like Jared Prince notched serious wins a year ago, including one over NCAA finalist Bryce Meredith.  

I think Ke-Shawn Hayes could turn some more heads this tournament. He was right in the match with Kevin Jack, nearly scoring a first period takedown. A turn for Jack in the second changed the match, but I left with the impression that he can compete with the upper-echelon 141s. Is he ready for a Joey McKenna or Bryce Meredith? I'm not ready to go that far. Then again, who could forget when another Buckeyes freshman stunned us all in Vegas (Hunter Stieber takes out NCAA champ Kellen Russell)?  

To me, I see this final coming down to Meredith and McKenna. McKenna was my preseason pick to win it all, so obviously I think he is the favorite here. But you can't overlook the Meredith/McKenna semifinals from last season at NCAAs. Though McKenna earned the first takedown, Meredith had the edge on the mat, earning riding time and a late takedown of his own. At this point in the season, McKenna seems to be wrestling better, so he's my pick.  

Meredith and McKenna's NCAA semifinal:

CP's Predictions:
1. Joey McKenna, Stanford
2. Bryce Meredith, Wyoming
3. Ke-Shawn Hayes, Ohio State
4. Brock Zacherl, Clarion
5. Jared Prince, Navy
6. Logan Everett, Army

149 Pounds

Ranked Entries
No. 5 Micah Jordan, Ohio State
No. 6 Solomon Chishko, Virginia Tech
No. 7 Justin Oliver, Central Michigan
No. 8 Pat Lugo, Edinboro
No. 10 Christian Pagdilao, Arizona State
No. 16 Zac Hall, Michigan
No. 19 Joey Delgado, Oregon State

Pre-Seeds
1. Solomon Chishko, Virginia Tech
2. Micah Jordan, Ohio State
3. Justin Oliver, Central Michigan
4. Pat Lugo, Edinboro
5. Andrew Crone, Wisconsin
6. Joey Galasso, Cornell
7. Zac Hall, Michigan
8. Christian Pagdilao, Arizona State
9. Joey Delgado, Oregon State

It's a bit odd to see Solomon Chishko seeded ahead of Micah Jordan given their head-to-head history. Jordan has never lost to Chishko (3-0 since the two got to college). So while Chishko may earn the No. 1 seed based on a superior NCAA tournament, very few will give him the nod to win the title.

Along the way for the two top dogs will potentially be familiar opponents. Chishko could see Lugo in the semi's. He beat the Edinboro sophomore in the dual earlier this season. Similarly for Jordan, he will potentially see All-American Justin Oliver, who he dominated earlier this year.

If Christian Pagdilao is back and healthy, he's someone I'm curious to watch. When healthy at 100 percent, he's problematic and has beaten several All-Americans. Zac Hall has been strong filling the 149 void with Alec Pantaleo's redshirt. This could be a potential breakout performance for the Wolverine.

Jordan's ability to proficiently attack both legs is something I don't think anyone in this field can prevent, including Chishko. Jordan additionally keeps most guys at bay with his positioning and controlling of the hand fight. In Chishko and Jordan's matches, there are very few instances where Chishko is able to get to legs.

Where this could get interesting is if they make Jordan the No. 1 seed, and we have a Chishko/Oliver semifinal. I believe I'd favor Chishko but only slightly.

CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Micah Jordan, Ohio State
2. Solomon Chishko, Virginia Tech
3. Justin Oliver, Central Michigan
4. Christian Pagdilao, Arizona State
5. Pat Lugo, Edinboro
6. Zac Hall, Michigan

157 Pounds

Ranked Entries
No. 2 Dylan Palacio, Cornell
No. 5 Brian Murphy, Michigan
No. 10 Russell Parsons, Army
No. 11 Collin Heffernan, Central Michigan
No. 18 Josh Shields, Arizona State
No. 20 Jake Ryan, Ohio State

Pre-Seeds
1. Dylan Palacio, Cornell
2. Brian Murphy, Michigan
3. Collin Heffernan, Central Michigan
4. Russell Parsons, Army
5. Victor Lopez, Bucknell
6. Casey Sparkman, Kent State
7. Sal Mastriani, Virginia Tech
8. Joshua Shields, Arizona State

There's potential for an amazing rematch here between Brian Murphy and Dylan Palacio. It was an 8-7 classic at NCAAs with Murphy being the winner. Both would go on to earn NCAA honors that tournament. Based on the field here, they're a cut above the competition, and I'd be fairly surprised to see either upended by anyone else.

Murphy and Palacio's 8-7 NCAA bout:


Casey Sparkman comes in with a little momentum after knocking off Jake Ryan last week in their dual. I'm excited to get eyes on Joshua Shields once again. He has been pretty impressive after what has been a very busy month for the Sun Devils. His progression throughout the year is something to monitor.

The Murphy/Palacio match is one where I'm anticipating a different result from the last one. If you go back and rewatch the match, Palacio was in deep on a single and had a swing and a miss on a trip that led him to give up a crucial four points. He would lose 8-7. I think he has a more consistent leg attack, a slightly better top game, and they're about even in the scrambles (both elite).

CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Dylan Palacio, Cornell
2. Brian Murphy, Michigan
3. Collin Heffernan, Central Michigan
4. Josh Shields, Arizona State
5. Russell Parsons, Army
6. Sal Mastriani, Virginia Tech

165 Pounds

Ranked Entries
No. 2 Isaac Jordan, Wisconsin
No. 5 Logan Massa, Michigan
No. 9 Dylan Cottrell, WVU
No. 13 Keaton Subjeck, Stanford
No. 14 Anthony Valencia, Arizona State
No. 15 Tyrel White, Columbia
No. 18 Austin Matthews, Edinboro
No. 19 Dane Pestano, Iowa State

Pre-Seeds
1. Isaac Jordan, Wisconsin
2. Logan Massa, Michigan
3. Dylan Cottrell, West Virginia
4. Anthony Valencia, Arizona State
5. Keaton Subjeck, Stanford
6. Austin Matthews, Edinboro
7. Brandon Womack, Cornell
8. Tyrel White, Columbia

Love this weight! It features established talent ready to be challenged by the elite youth. Isaac Jordan isn't a name that elicits a rabid response from fans, but people need to recognize how outstanding this guy has been for three years and change. His success lies in the multiple dimensions of his game. He's defensively excellent. You probably won't get to his legs. If you do, it's unlikely you'll finish. He's a hammer on top, able to both ride and turn. Additionally he's got grit and toughness that get him out of tough situations. I think a lot of Logan Massa, and I'd be pretty surprised to see him take out Jordan.

I do think Massa is a cut above the rest of the field, however. His ability to consistently attack legs (maybe better than anyone, including Jordan) will separate him from the rest. I worry about him on the mat and in scrambles with Jordan. Also, if Jordan gets to his legs, he's a very high-percentage finisher.

I'm hopeful we'll get a Anthony Valencia/Dylan Cottrell rematch at some point. In November, Cottrell had a great counter and rideout that were ultimately the difference in the mat. Valencia is figuring things out still. I think he makes the necessary adjustments and finishes those attacks. We could see Keaton Subjeck give Valencia some issues as well. We already saw Subjeck challenge Vincenzo Joseph off of his attacks. Enter another volume shooter, Anthony Valencia.

If it wasn't glaringly apparent, I'm taking Jordan to win this tournament. I do think he'll see Massa in the finals. We'll get to learn a lot about Massa in this tournament. I think we'll be able to safely place him on a tier one way or the other after this tournament.

CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Isaac Jordan, Wisconsin
2. Logan Massa, Michigan
3. Anthony Valencia, Arizona State
4. Keaton Subjeck, Stanford
5. Dylan Cottrell, West Virginia
6. Austin Matthews, Edinboro

174 Pounds

Pre-Seeds
1. Bo Jordan, Ohio State
2. Zach Epperly, Virginia Tech
3. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
4. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
5. Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
6. Jadaen Bernstein, Navy
7. Jim Wilson, Stanford
8. Nick Wanzek, Minnesota
9. Myles Amine, Michigan
10. Ryan Christensen, Wisconsin

Ranked Wrestlers
No. 5 Brian Realbuto, Cornell
No. 7 Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
No. 13 Jim Wilson, Stanford
No. 14 Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
No. 15 Jadaen Bernstein, Navy
No. 17 Nick Wanzek, Minnesota
No. 19 Ryan Christensen, Wisconsin

So no, we won't get the match we were looking for (Bo Jo vs. Zahid). But perhaps I am being overly presumptuous in assuming that match would even happen. The great thing about CKLV is there is never a shortage of marquee matchups.

Enter Brian Realbuto and Zahid Valencia.

Should both navigate these fields like we expect, this will undoubtedly be the biggest test of Valencia's folkstyle career. Realbuto's high crotch and scrambling will be a unique test for Valencia. When you consider the NCAA finalist's top game, things get even more interesting. Realbuto typically can wrestle a high pace for seven minutes. We have multiple instances (as recent as November) of Valencia struggling to finish matches. The question is can Realbuto stress Valencia like Ethan Ramos did?

Realbuto has a strong, heavy right leg lead. This is where I see the match going down. Valencia will get to his sweep to that leg, no question. The match will be won and lost in his ability to finish. If he finishes half or so of his attempts, he'll win. If Valencia gets stalemated or countered, I'll give it to Realbuto.

One interesting stat about Realbuto since he moved up to 174 is that he only has defeated one All-American at this weight, an up-and-down Casey Kent. While wins over Blaise Butler (former 157-pounder) and Chandler Rogers (current 165-pounder) are nice, it's still pretty inconclusive after 35 matches at 174 if Realbuto is the same guy he was at 157. There's starting to be mounting evidence that he's not.

The question is, how real is Valencia? I'm bullish on the Sun Devil but more cautiously so after his scare against Ramos. I'm not sure if it's out on a limb or conventional wisdom to pick Valencia over Realbuto, but I'm going to do it. I can't have it both ways and pick the guy to get second at NCAAs but lose to Realbuto at CKLV.

Lost in this Realbuto/Valencia discussion are a few tough 174-pounders in Lelund Weatherspoon (who beat Realbuto last year), Jadaen Bernstein (beat the aforementioned Ethan Ramos) and Jim Wilson (former All-American at 165). I don't think Weatherspoon has looked like the same wrestler we saw last year at NCAAs. Though if there's one thing we do know about Lelund, it's that when he's on, he's dangerous. He might just be due.

CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
2. Brian Realbuto, Cornell
3. Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
4. Jadaen Bernstein, Navy
5. Jim Wilson, Stanford
6. Nick Wanzek, Minnesota

Weatherspoon downs Realbuto at 2016 NCAAs:

184 Pounds

Pre-Seeds
1. Gabe Dean, Cornell
2. Myles Martin, Ohio State
3. Patrick Downey, Iowa State
4. Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
5. Jordan Ellingwood, Central Michigan
6. Steve Schneider, Binghamton
7. Corey Griego, Oregon State

Ranked Wrestlers
No. 1 Gabe Dean, Cornell
No. 2 Myles Martin, Ohio State
No. 9 Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
No. 12 Jordan Ellingwood, Central Michigan
No. 15 Corey Griego, Oregon State
No. 18 Steven Schneider, Binghamton

This weight enters with a few interesting plots. Though we've seen Gabe Dean falter here at CKLV before, the question still is: Can anyone keep it close with this guy? In November alone, we've watched Dean pour it on late against NCAA champion Myles Martin and most recently against Rutgers' Nick Gravina (14 unanswered in the third). So for the field, you presume it's Dean then everyone else. I agree.

So then we look down a rung to the Myles Martin/Zack Zavatsky dynamic. It's an intriguing matchup and one that on paper may not stand out, but to me it does. Coming into NCAAs, these two were having similar seasons (at two different weights). Zavatsky had two wins over NCAA third-place finisher Pete Renda as well as All-American's Mat Miller, Willie Miklus, Vic Avery, and Blake Stauffer. Martin had knocked off Nate Jackson and Casey Kent. They both took some losses: Zavatsky fell to Utley and McCutcheon, while Martin lost to Mike Ottinger and Davonte Mahomes.

So you can see coming into NCAAs last year, we have two fairly similar wrestlers, with perhaps a slight edge to Zavatsky. Then NCAAs happen. Zavatsky falls to NCAA finalist Nate Brown and Renda (who he had two wins over previously) and Martin stuns everyone taking out Bo Nickal.

My point is these two are very close, and there's a strong chance that Zavatsky could be the overall better guy. He is established at this weight, can match Martin's athleticism and likely has a slight advantage on the mat. I still believe that Martin is the better guy and will pick him, but this match has to be on your radar. It will be an excellent measuring stick for Martin, who is working to prove himself at a new weight class.

So is it a battle for second? I believe that it is. At this point neither Zavatsky nor Martin possess the necessary motor and horsepower to go seven minutes with Dean. What may look like a close match early could get out of hand quickly late. Zavatsky's top game and scrambling might present more issues than Martin's, but I don't think we'll see that match.

CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Gabe Dean, Cornell
2. Myles Martin, Ohio State
3. Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech
4. Jordan Ellingwood, Central Michigan
5. Corey Griego, Oregon State
6. Hunter Ritter, Wisconsin

Upsets have happened to Gabe Dean before at CKLV:

197 Pounds

Pre-Seeds
1. Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
2. Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
3. Jake Smith, West Virginia
4. Kollin Moore, Ohio State
5. Ricky Robertson, Wisconsin
6. Tom Sleigh, Bucknell
7. Matt Williams, CSU Bakersfield
8. Rocco Caywood, Army
9. Parker Hines, Air Force

Ranked Wrestlers
No. 2 Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
No. 3 Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
No. 8 Jake Smith, West Virginia
No. 13 Kollin Moore, Ohio State
No. 14 Jeric Kasunic, American
No. 16 Parker Hines, Air Force
No. 18 Matt Williams, CSU Bakersfield
No. 19 Rocco Caywood, Army
No. 20 Tom Sleigh, Bucknell

I really love this weight. Brett Pfarr is a treat to watch. His counters against Preston Weigel were really impressive. Not many guys go from defending a standing single to on top for two as effortlessly as Pfarr. We know J'den Cox is isolated on an island in the 197-pound weight class, but I wonder if Pfarr finds himself on a similar island. Not near Cox, but perhaps removed from the rest of the field. With the constituency here at CKLV, I think we'll find that out.

Kollin Moore is one of the bigger stories of this weight. Nobody is really quite sure what he is at this point? Is he a solid NCAA qualifier? A low-mid AA or someone who can enter the top four? Whatever is the case will have huge ramifications for Ohio State in the team race. I believe the Buckeyes will need strong contributions in March from Moore to contend with Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa. He's shown a real variety in his attacks, but I wonder if some of that was him getting to show that arsenal because of the competition. If he can penetrate this top three, it will say a lot about his prospects.

Jared Haught turned some heads when he held Cox, an Olympic bronze medalist, to a 2-0 decision. While moral victories mean little, it does put him in a tier that makes you think he can potentially challenge Pfarr. Another native West Virginian, Jake Smith looms in this field. Smith is positionally sound, but is reluctant to attack. Against a Kollin Moore type, who will attack in volume, I wonder if Smith struggles to maintain his more methodical style.

I think there is separation from No. 4 and below in the weight class. Moore or Smith are apart from this field and won't be tested from the No. 5 and beyond competitors.

We've seen the Pfarr/Haught showdown before, and while Haught rarely gives up points, I don't see where his offense will come from. His inside reach single is beautiful but finishing can be a chore. That's not a good place to be against Pfarr.

CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
2. Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
3. Kollin Moore, Ohio State
4. Jake Smith, West Virginia
5. Ricky Robertson, Wisconsin
6. Jeric Kasunic, American

Pfarr downs Haught at CKLV:

285 Pounds

Pre-Seeds
1. Kyle Snyder, Ohio State
2. Connor Medbery, Wisconsin
3. Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
4. Tanner Hall, Arizona State
5. Michael Kroells, Minnesota
6. Nathan Butler, Stanford
7. Billy Miller, Edinboro
8. Jeramy Sweany, Cornell

Ranked Wrestlers
No. 2 Connor Medbery, Wisconsin
No. 3 Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
No. 4 Tanner Hall, Arizona State
No. 5 Michael Kroells, Minnesota
No. 10 Nathan Butler, Stanford
No. 11 Billy Miller, Edinboro

Can you imagine if Kyle Snyder DID come? Holy smokes. As it stands we'll still have Nos. 2-5 in the mix. Where Tanner Hall fits in this pecking order is very interesting to me. I thought he wrestled Connor Medbery pretty tough at Journeymen. Yet I don't see a path to victory for Hall this time around. In their earlier meeting, Ty Walz had issues with the size of Medbery in my estimation. I doubt Medbery has shrunk anytime soon.

I believe Medbery is the class of this weight and will be an interesting threat to Snyder because of his athleticism. So I'm pretty bummed that we'll have to wait until either the Jan. 6 dual (who knows if Snyder will be there) or at worst, Big Tens.

Walz and Hall have some history, but it's been narrow victories both times for Walz. While Hall has undoubtedly improved, I'm not anticipating a complete sea change there. I'll take Walz until further notice.

At Daktronics, Michael Kroells and Hall had a 50 OT snoozer that Hall eventually won. If it happens again, let's hope for some more neutral output or at least some cattle prods in the form of stall calls. Given how Kroells looked against Austin Schafer, I wouldn't expect a reversal of outcomes.

As deep as this weight is, I really think the pecking order is defined and not likely to be deviated from. The only question I have is if Kroells can hang on to the four spot, or will he fall again to a lower-ranked guy such as Nathan Butler or Billy Miller.

CP'S PREDICTIONS:
1. Connor Medbery, Wisconsin
2. Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
3. Tanner Hall, Arizona State
4. Nathan Butler, Stanford
5. Michael Kroells, Minnesota
6. Billy Miller, Edinboro

Team Race:
The big guns: Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Cornell, Arizona State and others all have main cogs that won't be in.  I removed guys like Dylan Palacio, Christian Pagdilao and Dalton Macro who we've learned won't be in the mix.  So here are my predictions plugged into the NCAA Scoring rubric.

Rank	School	Pts
1	Virginia Tech	91.5
2	Ohio State	82
3	Stanford	71
3	Michigan	71
5	Arizona State	70.5
6	Wisconsin	59
7	Cornell	57.5
8	Central Michigan	42
9	Edinboro	40.5
10	Minnesota	39
11	Iowa State	27
12	Wyoming	25
13	Navy	25
14	West Virginia	22.5
15	Army	22.5
16	American	22.5
17	Clarion	13.5
18	Oregon State	10
19	Kent State	9
20	EMU	9

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