2017 Cadet/Junior National ChampionshipsJul 28, 2017 by Andrew Spey
Fargo Participation Though The Years
Fargo Participation Though The Years
The past 10 years of USA Wrestling's participation rates at Fargo, broken down by men's freestyle, Greco-Roman, and women's freestyle numbers.
Fargo 2017 is in the books. In the aftermath, we took an in-depth look at the results and the change in participation numbers from last year to this year.
Our last breakdown of participation numbers, which showed a decline in men's freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestlers from 2016 to 2017, sparked a healthy debate about whether USA Wrestling is maximizing the number of competitors, and, more controversially, if Fargo, North Dakota, is the ideal location for the Cadet and Junior National Championships.
But if the location is an issue, we will first need more longitudinal context to determine if the small decline from last year is part of a larger trend or potentially just a random blip.
Thanks to Jason Bryant's Mat Talk Almanac, we can take a look at participation rates going all the way back to 1997. We'll narrow our window to just the last 10 years, which can be found in the graph below.
As we can see, numbers actually increased steadily in all styles from 2011 to 2016. It is only from a decade-long high in 2016 that men's freestyle and Greco-Roman participation numbers see a small drop. And those drops are countered by another large jump in women's participation.
As a whole, total numbers at Fargo have gone up approximately 23 percent in the last 10 years and increased 28 percent since 2011.
For even more context, year-over-year growth over the last 10 years in all three styles can be see in the table below.
So while numbers are off a bit from 2016, it would difficult to put that blame on the location of the event when the previous five years saw such steady growth -- increases that more than made up for the slight decline seen in the most recent year.
That growth is in contrast to overall men's high school participation numbers, which declined about 2.5% over the last ten years, from 257,246 high school wrestlers reported for the 2006-2007 season to 250,653 for the 2015-2016 season.
We asked Bryant, a veteran of the last 19 Fargos, his thoughts about the recent rise in participation, and he cited the natural growth in women's wrestling as well as better organization on the individual state level.
Other theories postulated inside the Flo Headquarters include the increased popularity in international styles as well as enhanced coverage, both from social media and from outlets such as FloWrestling and its ilk.
We'll keep an eye on participation rates going forward, but after taking a more historical look at numbers, it seems that much of the hand-wringing over the most recent decline was for naught. Absent any additional information, USA Wrestling's cadet and junior freestyle and Greco-Roman national championships in Fargo, ND, appear to be in rude health.
Our last breakdown of participation numbers, which showed a decline in men's freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestlers from 2016 to 2017, sparked a healthy debate about whether USA Wrestling is maximizing the number of competitors, and, more controversially, if Fargo, North Dakota, is the ideal location for the Cadet and Junior National Championships.
But if the location is an issue, we will first need more longitudinal context to determine if the small decline from last year is part of a larger trend or potentially just a random blip.
Thanks to Jason Bryant's Mat Talk Almanac, we can take a look at participation rates going all the way back to 1997. We'll narrow our window to just the last 10 years, which can be found in the graph below.
As we can see, numbers actually increased steadily in all styles from 2011 to 2016. It is only from a decade-long high in 2016 that men's freestyle and Greco-Roman participation numbers see a small drop. And those drops are countered by another large jump in women's participation.
As a whole, total numbers at Fargo have gone up approximately 23 percent in the last 10 years and increased 28 percent since 2011.
For even more context, year-over-year growth over the last 10 years in all three styles can be see in the table below.
| YEAR | MFS | GR | WFS | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | -1.25% | -4.57% | 11.04% | -1.01% |
| 2016 | 4.54% | 5.31% | 29.15% | 7.42% |
| 2015 | 8.33% | 8.20% | 16.05% | 9.03% |
| 2014 | -0.77% | 3.98% | 30.23% | 3.56% |
| 2013 | 3.92% | 3.61% | 8.74% | 4.15% |
| 2012 | 2.73% | 1.44% | 5.93% | 2.44% |
| 2011 | -3.49% | -4.97% | 59.76% | -1.29% |
| 2010 | -1.86% | 1.39% | -14.65% | -1.17% |
| 2009 | -0.49% | -3.23% | -2.94% | -1.77% |
| 2008 | -7.05% | -7.24% | 5.15% | -6.56% |
So while numbers are off a bit from 2016, it would difficult to put that blame on the location of the event when the previous five years saw such steady growth -- increases that more than made up for the slight decline seen in the most recent year.
That growth is in contrast to overall men's high school participation numbers, which declined about 2.5% over the last ten years, from 257,246 high school wrestlers reported for the 2006-2007 season to 250,653 for the 2015-2016 season.
We asked Bryant, a veteran of the last 19 Fargos, his thoughts about the recent rise in participation, and he cited the natural growth in women's wrestling as well as better organization on the individual state level.
Other theories postulated inside the Flo Headquarters include the increased popularity in international styles as well as enhanced coverage, both from social media and from outlets such as FloWrestling and its ilk.
We'll keep an eye on participation rates going forward, but after taking a more historical look at numbers, it seems that much of the hand-wringing over the most recent decline was for naught. Absent any additional information, USA Wrestling's cadet and junior freestyle and Greco-Roman national championships in Fargo, ND, appear to be in rude health.