2017 UWW Senior World ChampionshipsSep 1, 2017 by Nomad Lobdell
What Could Next Year's Team Race Look Like?
What Could Next Year's Team Race Look Like?
How many points will it take for Team USA to repeat as world champions?
The storybook ending of this year's World Championships will be difficult to match for Team USA, not just next year, but for years to come.
Kyle Snyder's incredible victory over Abdulrashid Sadulaev provided the United States' final margin of victory over Russia in the closest team race for men's freestyle since 1994. That year, Mahmut Demir of Turkey won his only world title, defeating Bruce Baumgartner in the finals to lift Turkey to the team title over Russia on criteria in Istanbul.
We have previously pointed out that next year's team scoring will be changing, going from one in which a gold medal is worth 10 points to one in which a gold medal is worth 25 points. There will also of course be 10 weights in 2018, while there were only eight this year.
So given all that, we wanted to take a look at this year's team race using next year's scoring system and then extrapolate it out using two more weights.
The maximum point total any country could have scored at the 2017 World Championships was 80 (10 golds). Remember, bonus points do not necessarily count toward team scores in international wrestling, and you can find more information on the scoring process here.
Team USA's 54 points means it achieved 67.5 percent of the maximum total score. The previous two world championships could have been won with 57.5 percent and 61.3 percent of the maximum scores, respectively.
As the team scoring goes up, it becomes more likely that 1) overall margins of victory will increase, but 2) the percentage of points needed to win could go down. Using next year's scoring rubric, the United States scored 60 percent of the possible maximum of 200 points, while the winning teams from 2014 and 2015 needed only 48.5 percent and 47.5 percent respectively to win.
With two extra weights next year, our best first guess would be to take this year's results, plug in next year's scoring, and add 25 percent to everyone's score. Why 25? Because two weights represents a quarter of this year's team scoring. Next year's maximum team score is 250.
Obviously, there there will be many, many factors that will affect next year's team race: strength and composition of each team, health, new weigh-in rules, time adjustments to Budapest, and so on. But the safe money right now is to bet that next year's world champs will once again need about 60 percent of the maximum score, which averages out to a bronze medal at each weight.
Kyle Snyder's incredible victory over Abdulrashid Sadulaev provided the United States' final margin of victory over Russia in the closest team race for men's freestyle since 1994. That year, Mahmut Demir of Turkey won his only world title, defeating Bruce Baumgartner in the finals to lift Turkey to the team title over Russia on criteria in Istanbul.
We have previously pointed out that next year's team scoring will be changing, going from one in which a gold medal is worth 10 points to one in which a gold medal is worth 25 points. There will also of course be 10 weights in 2018, while there were only eight this year.
So given all that, we wanted to take a look at this year's team race using next year's scoring system and then extrapolate it out using two more weights.
The maximum point total any country could have scored at the 2017 World Championships was 80 (10 golds). Remember, bonus points do not necessarily count toward team scores in international wrestling, and you can find more information on the scoring process here.
Team USA's 54 points means it achieved 67.5 percent of the maximum total score. The previous two world championships could have been won with 57.5 percent and 61.3 percent of the maximum scores, respectively.
As the team scoring goes up, it becomes more likely that 1) overall margins of victory will increase, but 2) the percentage of points needed to win could go down. Using next year's scoring rubric, the United States scored 60 percent of the possible maximum of 200 points, while the winning teams from 2014 and 2015 needed only 48.5 percent and 47.5 percent respectively to win.
With two extra weights next year, our best first guess would be to take this year's results, plug in next year's scoring, and add 25 percent to everyone's score. Why 25? Because two weights represents a quarter of this year's team scoring. Next year's maximum team score is 250.
| Country | 57kg | 61kg | 65kg | 70kg | 74kg | 86kg | 97kg | 125kg | TOTAL | + 25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 25 | 15 | 25 | 15 | 120 | 150 |
| RUS | 0 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 20 | 15 | 20 | 10 | 108 | 135 |
| GEO | 0 | 15 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 85 | 106 |
| TUR | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 20 | 73 | 91 |
| AZE | 0 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 64 | 80 |
| JPN | 25 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 58 | 73 |
| CUB | 0 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 55 |
| IRI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 37 | 46 |
Obviously, there there will be many, many factors that will affect next year's team race: strength and composition of each team, health, new weigh-in rules, time adjustments to Budapest, and so on. But the safe money right now is to bet that next year's world champs will once again need about 60 percent of the maximum score, which averages out to a bronze medal at each weight.