2017 Who's #1Oct 3, 2017 by Nomad Lobdell
Who's #1: The Complete Dual Breakdown
Who's #1: The Complete Dual Breakdown
Our complete breakdown of all 11 matches at Who's Number One this Sunday.
The fifth edition of Who's #1 is this weekend at the Snake Pit in Bethlehem, PA, and the card is filled with 11 excellent matches. Not since year one have we compiled a complete breakdown of the dual in one place, but lucky for you, we're going to do that right now.
The match breakdowns are in the order in which we will see the bouts on Sunday afternoon. Wrestling starts at 2 PM Eastern, and of course the only place to watch it is LIVE on Flo.
Heinselman will still have a size advantage and still uses his underhook very effectively. He stays low in his stance, often with a hand on the mat. After three years of being on age-level world teams, his low single and arm drag have become more effective.
As is often the case in high-level folkstyle matches, it will be a low-scoring affair, two takedowns to one. I see McHenry's footwork and the development of his throw-by reversing the Fargo result.
The Pick: McHenry 6-5 Heinselman
Howard is a pitbull on the mat, always wanting to control ties and overpower guys. He is built somewhat like Luke Pletcher, which is why scrambles are the main way to score on his legs. While I don't necessarily like this matchup for Howard, I still think he's the better wrestler and that McKee would be more able to make up the gap if this were freestyle.
The pick: Howard 7-4 McKee
Ramirez has the ability to score on anyone -- and go up big early. We've seen him do it against David Carr and Travis Wittlake to name a couple. He won't be cutting any weight for WNO, which should help any potential gas-tank issues. Ramirez is effective from short offense and can pull his cross-wrist tilt in very quickly on top. While I expect him to go up early, I think the underhook will be too much and Hidlay will close it out in the third.
The pick: Hidlay 7-6 Ramirez
Unfortunately, we won't get to see Brayton Lee wrestle for the No. 1 spot. But he will get a Pennsylvania state champ in Justin McCoy, who will be a late fill in for the injured Will Lewan. Lee is an elite athlete who is adept at getting his opponent's legs off the ground. Even with McCoy potentially having the crowd behind him, Lee could be difficult to stop once he gets on a roll. I'm not predicting a major, but this could be our biggest margin of the night.
The pick: Lee 11-6 McCoy
Who's #1 All-Time Results & Alumni Update
Though it has been 22 months since they last wrestled, Sunday's match could very well be similar. Teasdale is a better athlete and more active on his feet, but we've already mentioned Glory is a good scrambler and Teasdale takes risks. Aside from the elbow control and go-behind that felled him last time, Glory will need to fight off Teasdale's Kaid Brock-esque low single and Daton Fix-ish inside trip.
The pick: Teasdale 8-5 Glory
We've seen Bravo-Young take on and beat guys before who have appeared stronger than him, Decatur in particular comes to mind. He's very heavy with his whizzer and quick to rubber knee out of shots. His elbow control ducks and ability to change directions after getting initially stopped on low singles will be his path to victory.
The pick: Bravo-Young 3-2 Silva
Our own Mike Mal did a great breakdown for Mitch Moore:
And another informative one for Jacori Teemer:
The pick: Teemer 10-8 Moore
David Carr is wrestling in his second straight WNO, and Mike breaks down some other big matches he's been in.
Thanks, Mike. The only time these two met in folkstyle was the Super 32 quarters in 2015, won by Carr 7-5. Give me the same score this time around.
The pick: Carr 7-5 Lee
Kilty is one of the most physically imposing girls to wrestle, especially now that she's up a few weight classes. She's great at keeping her opponent's hip trapped on the mat while driving her shoulder into them to finish her single and has a top-notch gut wrench. Figueroa relies heavily on her ankle pick, one of the most frustrating moves on the women's circuit. Everyone knows it's coming and no one can stop it. On top, she prefers a modified leg lace, bending one knee inside instead of trapping both together as the guys typically do.
The pick: Kilty 6-5 Figueroa
Hoffman lives on coming out the back in low singles, not quite as scrambly as a lightweight, but deliberate with his shot defense, similar to Brett Pfarr. Hoffman just showed he could win at a world level, taking home a bronze medal from Cadet Worlds, the year after Beard did not make the team.
On paper, Beard is probably a heavy favorite. He's ranked higher in his weight, both in the pound-for-pound and Big Board rankings. He has a greater margin of victory against a very strong schedule and looks more imposing. But I think Hoffman slows the match down to a pace he wants, stymies Beard more than once from neutral, and wears him down.
The pick: Hoffman 5-4 Beard
Based on what we saw at Ironman last year, Sasso likely has the edge in folkstyle. His straight-leg shot defense into a crackdown is one of the most recognizable moves in high school wrestling. Artalona is far more effective in an exposure situation as opposed to a control situation. The guys who Sasso struggles with are the ones who can blow right through him or change direction on doubles and get his knees pinched together.
I'm not sure I see Artalona being able to do that, but it is also hard to shake Nick Lee's performance against Sasso last year. That will either be the motivation Sasso needs to get it done in front of his home crowd or be a sign of things to come this Sunday in the Snake Pit. I'm going with the former.
The pick: Sasso 6-3 Artalona
At the end of the night, I've got it six matches to five in favor of Team Black. Coach Izzy Martinez gets the win over Team Green coach Jody Strittmatter. This event is one of the hardest to pick every year, and I would not be shocked if I got over half of these wrong. These kids are too close. The stakes are too high, and it's the only show in town.
Black 18-15 Green
120: No. 1 Robert Howard (NJ) vs. No. 4 Pat McKee (MN)
170: No. 1 Trent Hidlay (PA) vs. No. 2 Julian Ramirez (FL)
152: No. 2 Brayton Lee (IN) vs. No. 6 Justin McCoy (PA)
126: No. 2 Gavin Teasdale (PA) vs. No. 3 Pat Glory (NJ)
132: No. 1 Roman Bravo-Young (AZ) vs. No. 2 Joey Silva (FL)
138: No. 1 Jacori Teemer (NY) vs No. 3 Mitch Moore (Ohio)
160: No. 1 David Carr (OH) vs. No. 2 Joe Lee (IN)
125: No. 1 Gracie Figueroa (CA) vs. No. 1 Macey Kilty (WI)
195: No. 1 Micheal Beard (PA) vs. No. 2 Gavin Hoffman (PA)
145: No. 1 Anthony Artalona (FL) vs. No. 3 Sammy Sasso (PA)
The match breakdowns are in the order in which we will see the bouts on Sunday afternoon. Wrestling starts at 2 PM Eastern, and of course the only place to watch it is LIVE on Flo.
113: #1 Malik Heinselman (Black) vs. #2 Kurt McHenry (Green)
When Malik Heinselman beat Kurt McHenry in the 2015 Fargo semis, it was clear McHenry did not have an answer for Heinselman's underhooks and short offense. So McHenry changed the way he set up his takedowns, going for quick collar tie, elbow control, and throw-by scores.Heinselman will still have a size advantage and still uses his underhook very effectively. He stays low in his stance, often with a hand on the mat. After three years of being on age-level world teams, his low single and arm drag have become more effective.
As is often the case in high-level folkstyle matches, it will be a low-scoring affair, two takedowns to one. I see McHenry's footwork and the development of his throw-by reversing the Fargo result.
The Pick: McHenry 6-5 Heinselman
120: #1 Robbie Howard (Green) vs. #4 Patrick McKee (Black)
The 120 match features this year's Fargo champ in Patrick McKee against this year's cadet world team member in Robert Howard. McKee exclusively wrestles high-scoring matches that go down to the wire. He'll wrestle slightly more conservative in folkstyle than free but will wind up using more of his scramble abilities. He'll try to pressure forward with a two-on-one, but may be able to frustrate Howard by extending shots.Howard is a pitbull on the mat, always wanting to control ties and overpower guys. He is built somewhat like Luke Pletcher, which is why scrambles are the main way to score on his legs. While I don't necessarily like this matchup for Howard, I still think he's the better wrestler and that McKee would be more able to make up the gap if this were freestyle.
The pick: Howard 7-4 McKee
170: #1 Trent Hidlay (Black) vs. #2 Julian Ramirez (Green)
Julian Ramirez and Trent Hidlay were a late addition to the card but a much deserved one. The book on Hidlay is well known at this point: a top-level athlete with great explosiveness who can run through an underhook to a knee pick on just about anyone. He's stronger than most guys he wrestles and will stay low in a three-point stance until he finds an opening to jam that underhook.Ramirez has the ability to score on anyone -- and go up big early. We've seen him do it against David Carr and Travis Wittlake to name a couple. He won't be cutting any weight for WNO, which should help any potential gas-tank issues. Ramirez is effective from short offense and can pull his cross-wrist tilt in very quickly on top. While I expect him to go up early, I think the underhook will be too much and Hidlay will close it out in the third.
The pick: Hidlay 7-6 Ramirez
152: #2 Brayton Lee (Green) vs #6 Justin McCoy (Black)
Unfortunately, we won't get to see Brayton Lee wrestle for the No. 1 spot. But he will get a Pennsylvania state champ in Justin McCoy, who will be a late fill in for the injured Will Lewan. Lee is an elite athlete who is adept at getting his opponent's legs off the ground. Even with McCoy potentially having the crowd behind him, Lee could be difficult to stop once he gets on a roll. I'm not predicting a major, but this could be our biggest margin of the night.The pick: Lee 11-6 McCoy
Who's #1 All-Time Results & Alumni Update
126: #2 Gavin Teasdale (Green) vs. #3 Pat Glory (Black)
Gavin Teasdale is making his fourth appearance at WNO and is looking to redeem himself after last year's loss to Jordan Decatur. Teasdale has one of the most varied skill sets of any high schooler right now, able to switch his lead leg and always willing to try new things. That cost him against Decatur, as he fell behind 4-0 on a double-unders foot sweep attempt. Teasdale's WHO opponent Pat Glory isn't as explosive as Decatur (few are) but is better at scrambling.Though it has been 22 months since they last wrestled, Sunday's match could very well be similar. Teasdale is a better athlete and more active on his feet, but we've already mentioned Glory is a good scrambler and Teasdale takes risks. Aside from the elbow control and go-behind that felled him last time, Glory will need to fight off Teasdale's Kaid Brock-esque low single and Daton Fix-ish inside trip.
The pick: Teasdale 8-5 Glory
132: #1 Roman Bravo-Young (Green) vs. Joey Silva (Black)
Joey Silva vs. Roman Bravo-Young may be my second favorite matchup on the card. Silva is an animal on the mat, trying to wrestle everyone in a phone booth. He won't take his hands out of your face or off your neck/shoulders. That being said, he tends to be more tentative in big matches, hesitant to commit to leg attacks in the same way he does against lesser opponents. Silva will likely rely on RBY to make mistakes and win the match by a specific score.We've seen Bravo-Young take on and beat guys before who have appeared stronger than him, Decatur in particular comes to mind. He's very heavy with his whizzer and quick to rubber knee out of shots. His elbow control ducks and ability to change directions after getting initially stopped on low singles will be his path to victory.
The pick: Bravo-Young 3-2 Silva
138: #1 Jacori Teemer (Black) vs. #2 Mitch Moore (Green)
Our own Mike Mal did a great breakdown for Mitch Moore:And another informative one for Jacori Teemer:
The pick: Teemer 10-8 Moore
160: #1 David Carr (Black) vs. #2 Joe Lee (Green)
Mike Mal and I are on the same page with Joe Lee, that his path to victory lies in volume shooting:David Carr is wrestling in his second straight WNO, and Mike breaks down some other big matches he's been in.
Thanks, Mike. The only time these two met in folkstyle was the Super 32 quarters in 2015, won by Carr 7-5. Give me the same score this time around.
The pick: Carr 7-5 Lee
125: #1 Gracie Figueroa (Green) vs. #1 Macey Kilty (Black)
Ryan Holmes was right when he said our first-ever female match at WNO could steal the show. It's the third to last match of the night and pits a pair of girls with very similar resumes against each other. Gracie Figueroa was a cadet world bronze medalist who won Fargo this year at 122, while Kilty also won cadet bronze last year and won Fargo up at 127. Both also have wins over past cadet world champ Ronna Heaton.Kilty is one of the most physically imposing girls to wrestle, especially now that she's up a few weight classes. She's great at keeping her opponent's hip trapped on the mat while driving her shoulder into them to finish her single and has a top-notch gut wrench. Figueroa relies heavily on her ankle pick, one of the most frustrating moves on the women's circuit. Everyone knows it's coming and no one can stop it. On top, she prefers a modified leg lace, bending one knee inside instead of trapping both together as the guys typically do.
The pick: Kilty 6-5 Figueroa
195: #1 Michael Beard (Green) vs. #2 Gavin Hoffman (Black)
This is the one I've been waiting for. Of all the matches, Gavin Hoffman vs. Michael Beard is the head-to-head battle I have been looking forward to most. Prep vs. public. Ohio State vs. Penn State. Both are PA boys and somehow they've never met before. Hoffman has taken losses to elite athletes previously -- the Jakob Woodley and John Borst matches come to mind -- but neither of those were blowouts, and not allowing oneself to get overwhelmed by his physicality and pace is half the battle when wrestling against Beard.Hoffman lives on coming out the back in low singles, not quite as scrambly as a lightweight, but deliberate with his shot defense, similar to Brett Pfarr. Hoffman just showed he could win at a world level, taking home a bronze medal from Cadet Worlds, the year after Beard did not make the team.
On paper, Beard is probably a heavy favorite. He's ranked higher in his weight, both in the pound-for-pound and Big Board rankings. He has a greater margin of victory against a very strong schedule and looks more imposing. But I think Hoffman slows the match down to a pace he wants, stymies Beard more than once from neutral, and wears him down.
The pick: Hoffman 5-4 Beard
145: #1 Anthony Artalona (Green) vs. #2 Sammy Sasso (Black)
These two have met three times before but never in folkstyle. Sasso beat him Artalona twice at Junior Duals, 9-4 in 2016 and 5-4 this year. Sasso was leading late in the Fargo semis, but Artalona went ham, eggs, and cheese to come back late and win 12-10.Based on what we saw at Ironman last year, Sasso likely has the edge in folkstyle. His straight-leg shot defense into a crackdown is one of the most recognizable moves in high school wrestling. Artalona is far more effective in an exposure situation as opposed to a control situation. The guys who Sasso struggles with are the ones who can blow right through him or change direction on doubles and get his knees pinched together.
I'm not sure I see Artalona being able to do that, but it is also hard to shake Nick Lee's performance against Sasso last year. That will either be the motivation Sasso needs to get it done in front of his home crowd or be a sign of things to come this Sunday in the Snake Pit. I'm going with the former.
The pick: Sasso 6-3 Artalona
At the end of the night, I've got it six matches to five in favor of Team Black. Coach Izzy Martinez gets the win over Team Green coach Jody Strittmatter. This event is one of the hardest to pick every year, and I would not be shocked if I got over half of these wrong. These kids are too close. The stakes are too high, and it's the only show in town.
Black 18-15 Green
WHO'S #1 MATCH ORDER
113: No. 1 Malik Heinselman (CO) vs. No. 2 Kurt McHenry (MD)120: No. 1 Robert Howard (NJ) vs. No. 4 Pat McKee (MN)
170: No. 1 Trent Hidlay (PA) vs. No. 2 Julian Ramirez (FL)
152: No. 2 Brayton Lee (IN) vs. No. 6 Justin McCoy (PA)
126: No. 2 Gavin Teasdale (PA) vs. No. 3 Pat Glory (NJ)
132: No. 1 Roman Bravo-Young (AZ) vs. No. 2 Joey Silva (FL)
138: No. 1 Jacori Teemer (NY) vs No. 3 Mitch Moore (Ohio)
160: No. 1 David Carr (OH) vs. No. 2 Joe Lee (IN)
125: No. 1 Gracie Figueroa (CA) vs. No. 1 Macey Kilty (WI)
195: No. 1 Micheal Beard (PA) vs. No. 2 Gavin Hoffman (PA)
145: No. 1 Anthony Artalona (FL) vs. No. 3 Sammy Sasso (PA)