Cliff Keen Las Vegas 2018 Preview: 165, 174 & 184 Pounds
Cliff Keen Las Vegas 2018 Preview: 165, 174 & 184 Pounds
Cliff Keen Las Vegas 2018 Preview: 165, 174, & 184 Pounds
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It's CKLV week, and with over 100 ranked wrestlers coming to Vegas, our previews need to be broken up into pieces. Today we're going over 165, 174 and 184 pounds. One of those weights features the top four ranked guys, but you'll have to read on to find out which one that is.
With 32 total ranked in these three weights, it means over half of the ranked wrestlers at each weight will be present. There are nine returning placers from last year's brackets: two at 165, three at 174, and four at 184.
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Nov. 30 - Dec. 1 | 12PM Eastern
Just coming off Open season, you'd be forgiven for not remembering that teams can only enter one athlete per weight. Brackets will eventually be on FloArena, but until then feel free to peruse the entries. Hopefully pre-seeds will be here by Wednesday, but should definitely be out by Thursday night.
With so many (five card) studs, it's going to be close to impossible to mention them all here. But we'll try to give you some sleepers and landmines, as well as top four predictions in each field. Let's get to it.
Previews: 125 + 133 | 141, 149 & 157 | 197 + 285
165 Pounds
Contenders
#5 Logan Massa, Michigan: 2-0
#6 Branson Ashworth, Wyoming: 10-1
#8 Bryce Steiert, Northern Iowa: 4-1
#10 Isaiah White, Nebrasak: 1-3
Dark Horses
#11 Andrew Fogarty, ND State: 6-1
#13 Demetrius Romero, Utah Valley: 4-1
#14 Joey Gunther, Illinois: 5-1
#15 Connor Flynn, Missouri: 2-1
#16 Mekhi Lewis, Virginia Tech: 5-1
#17 Ebed Jarrell, Drexel: 8-1
#18 Jake Wentzel, Pittsburgh: 1-1
#19 Jonathan Viruet, Brown: 8-0
A lot of what caused Logan Massa to not place last year at NCAAs can be drawn back to his injury at CKLV. The top seed, he cruised into Friday night's quarterfinals with two techs and a pin. But just 48 seconds into his match with Evan Wick, Massa let out a scream after injuring his leg trying to defend a shot on the edge. He would finish the match, but wasn't quite the same the rest of the season. The Michigan junior opened as a -150 favorite on BetDSI.
Wyoming senior Branson Ashworth could be the two seed coming in, fresh off his second victory over Chandler Rogers. His CKLV last year ended early after falling in the first round to Zac Carson and then losing 4-2 to Isaiah White in the bloodround. You get him in a field bet, so if you believe in the Cowboy, lay some money down! Color me interested in a semifinal between him and Big 12 foe Steiert.
Bryce Steiert redshirted last season and only wrestled 11 matches, but one of those was a win over Chance Marsteller. That gives him a common opponent over Ashworth, who lost to Marsteller at Journeymen. Steiert's only loss thus far was to Wick in the finals of the Cyclone Open. He started off +200, behind only Massa.
White is just 1-3 on the season, with his most recent loss coming to Ashworth, avenging the CKLV loss mentioned above. The junior is the highest returning placer at the weight, having finished third last year. Nebraska's got four guys you can bet on, but is the +250 enough to sway fans who saw some of the early season losses?
Fogarty is intriguing as the only other returning placer besides White. He did get a little help, as he picked up a med forfeit over Massa in the bloodround and then a controversial win over Anthony Valencia right after that. Finishing in the top-six again would cement himself in the rankings.
Mekhi Lewis, the U23 world champion, is the fourth and final guy available to bet on at this weight. But he took an early loss to Connor Flynn, who in turn lost to Joey Gunther. If things fall like that again, Lewis wouldn't place, but I don't see it playing out quite like that.
Demetrius Romero could absolutely be considered a landmine and is looking to place after going 4-2 last time out. I'm also kind of hoping to see a rematch between Ebed Jarrell and White, a match Jarrell won 6-3 at Journeymen. Ashworth isn't the only man in the field with a win over Rogers, as Jonathan Viruet beat him in the first round at NCAAS.
This weight is a little short on dark horses, but Rutgers freshman Stephan Glasgow might be the one you let it ride on. He was #26 on the 2017 Big Board but is still a true freshman as he took a post graduate year. Along with Kaleb Romero, they represent the two most intriguing guys at this weight who are two years out of high school.
Nomad's Picks
1. Massa, MICH 2. Steiert, UNI 3. Ashworth, WYO 4. Lewis, VT
174 Pounds
Contenders
#3 Myles Amine, Michigan: 2-0
#4 Daniel Lewis, Missouri: 3-0
#9 Taylor Lujan, Northern Iowa: 5-0
#11 Mikey Labriola, Nebraska: 9-1
#13 Johnny Sebastian, Northwestern: 2-0
#15 Dylan Lydy, Purdue: 8-2
#16 Brandon Womack, Cornell: 7-1
#18 Matt Finesilver, Duke: 6-1
#20 Kimball Bastian, Utah Valley: 3-3
It was at this tournament last year when I realized Myles Amine could beat Bo Jordan. The Wolverine scored the first takedown and nearly made the finals, but ultimately lost and took third. With Jordan graduated and Arizona State not coming, that leaves Amine as the highest ranked wrestler and highest returning placer, as well as the odds on favorite.
He's got wins over the next two seeds in Daniel Lewis and Taylor Lujan. The win over Lewis came in the third place match at NCAAs. In that match, the three-time All-American Lewis rode Amine out for the entire second period, but Amine got a late takedown in the third period and another in sudden victory for the 4-2 win. Amine picked up four takedowns and a reversal in the 11-9 win over Lujan in the third place match here last year.
The common theme for both of Lujan's matches with Lewis and Amine is points. In a dual at Northern Iowa, Lewis came out on top in a 13-10 barnburner. It's impossible not to mention Lewis' top game, especially in a field missing some other highly ranked guys.
Lujan can be a rather frustrating figure. He's unquestionably one of the most exciting wrestlers in the country, with a varied offensive arsenal highlighted by his boot scoot (which he hit against Zahid to take the lead in their semi last year). Putting up 9 and 10 points against Amine and Lewis respectively is no easy feat, but giving up 11 and 13 is not a recipe for success. I have no idea what to expect from Lujan other than that I hope to be matside or on the call for every one of his matches.
My interest is piqued by Dylan Lydy. Purdue in general is feisty, and yes I am aware a few of their starters lost to Iowa backups on Saturday. But Lydy beat Amine in a dual in January and beat Labriola twice at Midlands. That guarantees him nothing of course, but it speaks to the kind of pain he can be to this field.
When he's on, it's very easy to see Labriola's AA level potential. But then a match like his loss to Ryan Christensen happens and you have to pump the brakes a little. For now though, give me the guy who can get multiple takedowns in each period of a match to do well this weekend.
Johnny Sebastian, Grant Leeth, and Micky Phillippi can all have a medical redshirt party in Vegas. Sebastian is one of several Wildcats ranked outside the Top-10 of their weight who can score good team points this weekend. Combine that with high finishes from Sebastian Rivera, Ryan Deakin, and Conan Jennings, and Northwestern may wind up looking good in the team standings.
Matt Finesilver and Kimball Bastian were a combined 1-4 at CKLV last year. But they both qualified for NCAAs and are ranked now, so their bracket placement is important now.
Unlike 165, there are several notable sleepers in this field. Even in losses, Hayden Hastings of Wyoming is making waves as someone college coaches are paying attention to. He currently has a losing record, but people enjoy watching Anthony Mantanona. Devin Skatzka is a two-time qualifier who looks improved in his new program.
A bit of news for the team race in that Ohio State is going with redshirt freshman Ethan Smith over #12 Te'Shan Campbell. The former FloNats champ Smith beat Campbell 8-5 in the finals of the Ohio Intercollegiate Open. That reversed 3-1 and 4-2 decisions for Campbell over Smith in the wrestle-offs last month.
Nomad's Picks
1. Amine, MICH 2. Lewis, MIZZ 3. Labriola, NEB 4. Lujan, UNI
184 Pounds
Contenders
#1 Myles Martin, Ohio State: 1-0
#2 Emery Parker, Illinois: 6-0
#3 Taylor Venz, Nebraska: 5-0
#4 Zack Zavatsky, Virginia Tech: 5-0
Dark Horses
#8 Max Dean, Cornell: 2-0
#9 Chip Ness, North Carolina: 5-2
#10 Drew Foster, Northern Iowa: 5-0
#13 Nino Bonaccorsi, Pittsburgh: 1-1
#16 Louie DePrez, Binghamton: 3-1
#18 Christian LaFragola, Brown: 4-0
Woah, Nelly. We nearly hit a Royal Flush with each of the top four ranked guys coming. The one with the most to gain is clearly Zack Zavatsky.
With the other three being in the Big Ten, finishing worse can be mitigated by having more opportunities to pick up big wins and even get revenge in duals. But if Zavatsky wins, he's got a much more clear path to the #1 seed at NCAAs, in his hometown of Pittsburgh. ZZ Top has never wrestled Emery Parker, but he did beat Myles Martin here two years ago during Martin's up and down sophomore season. He's 0-2 against Venz, including a loss at CKLV last year.
Parker was the ultimate road warrior at the national tournament in Cleveland, losing his first round match before wrestling back to get third. The Illinois senior comes in ranked second and also has a win over Martin at NCAAs in 2017. He was 2-1 against Venz last season.
This tournament last year was when people really started taking notice of Venz. He came in as the 13-seed, but pinned his way into the semis, which included beating Drew Foster and Jordan Ellingwood. Then on the backside he beat Ricky Robertson and Zavatsky to get third.
But let's get real. This is Myles' weight, both at CKLV and in the country. Even with Nos. 2-4 in the bracket, two of whom have already beaten him, he's a -400 favorite, the biggest favorite in any weight class. In fact, no one else is even at -300. Martin is the only NCAA champ in the field, and the only guy to make multiple finals. Can he lose? Sure, but I'm not picking it. The only concern is him coming off U23s, but that was a few weeks ago.
The rest of this weight looks great, including All-Americans Max Dean, Chip Ness, and Drew Foster. What's more? How about junior world teamer Louie DePrez, as well as the guy he's wrestled 6,000 times in non-stop shooter Nino Bonaccorsi.
Dean is 1-2 against Ness and didn't place last year, but the losses were to Zavatsky and Foster. Ness took a loss to Hunter Bolen in the Hokie Open, which is more in line with his overall season last year. Foster was essentially the same guy all year in 2017 and 2018, but had a better last tournament in the former.
Rutgers entered Jordan Pagano instead of Nick Gravina, so 184 loses a ranked guy there. CJ LaFragola does bring the ranked total to double digits, but Mizzou is going with Dylan Wisman instead of #17 Canten Marriott.
There's definitely a ton of upside to be found in Jelani Embree, but he might not be able to place in this field. The guy he lost to at the Michigan State Open in Kayne McCallum will be here, another unranked sleeper to watch out for. Another couple Big Ten boys in Owen Webster and Max Lyon could create some problems in this bracket, as well.
Nomad's Picks
1. Martin, OSU 2. Venz, NEB 3. Parker, ILL 4. Zavatsky, VT