Why Joe Smith Should Be The Six Seed At Big 12s
Why Joe Smith Should Be The Six Seed At Big 12s
Why the Big 12 coaches should seed Joe Smith sixth at this weekend's conference tournament.
The saga of Joe Smith and Oklahoma State re-shuffling their lineup at the end of the year continues to draw national attention.
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After the Missouri dual, it appeared clear that the decision had been made to bring Dakota Geer back down to 184 and Jacobe Smith back down to 174, leaving two-time All-Americans Chandler Rogers and Joe Smith to fight it out for the 165lb spot.
But then Joseph didn't wrestle against Iowa, with Rogers actually going at 174, which confused everyone. Then, the final coaches rank came out, with Rogers at 165. That seemed to be a pretty good indicator it was Chandler's spot to lose.
When the initial Big 12 pre-seeds and brackets came out Monday afternoon, they had Rogers as the three seed. But just a few hours later, it became public that Smith beat Rogers in two ranking matches to nail down that the postseason spot would belong to him.
But that also meant the Big 12 coaches now had to re-vote on the 165lb seeds. So a new bracket was drawn, with Smith as the eight seed.
For those who haven't seen it this is the redrawn Big 12 bracket with Joe Smith as the 8 seed pic.twitter.com/L4V7xE7Ee1
— The Wrestling Nomad (@wrestlingnomad) March 7, 2019
That change caught the attention of fans, coaches, and media, because it meant that what most perceived to be the likely finals matchup would go down in the quarterfinals. However, like all pre-seeds for conference tournaments, the Iowa State twitter account made sure everyone knew the bracket can and likely would be re-drawn.
With the some changes at 165 pounds, the 165-pound bracket will be reseeded and redrawn on Friday evening at the coaches' meeting. Note that all of the brackets and preseeds are subject to change, as well.#Cyclones
— Iowa State Wrestling (@CycloneWR) March 6, 2019
Now, what actually is the seeding criteria the Big 12 uses? Glad you asked! Straight from the championship manual sent to each of the head coaches in the conference:
- Head to Head
- Coaches Poll Ranking
- Quality Wins
- Record vs common opponents
- RPI Ranking
Once you see that, it's easy to figure out how they came up with the initial seeding. Seeds 1-5 were neat and orderly: Branson Ashworth beat Demetrius Romero, who beat Bryce Steiert. The Panther's win over Nick Kiussis put him in the three spot, and Kiussis's win over Andrew Fogarty locked down the four.
What is clear from the seeding criteria is that the conference favors those wrestlers who were most likely to earn automatic qualifier allocations for the Big 12. Once Rogers is removed, the five wrestlers mentioned in the previous paragraph are the ones who earned the spots. There's no reason they shouldn't also inhabit the top five seeds when wrestling starts on Saturday morning.
To the crux of the matter: what to do with Joe Smith? He has ZERO matches at 165 pounds. No head-to-heads, not enough matches (five) to earn a coaches rank, and certainly nowhere near enough to earn an RPI (17). He doesn't have any common opponents and there doesn't appear to be a definition attached to quality wins in the manual.
So, what is both the most objectively fair and subjectively wise seed to give Smith? The six seed. First of all, it rightfully rewards the five wrestlers who earned the allocations and provides them the greatest chance of still qualifying. Second, it creates a path that is both "difficult" and "smart" when thinking about the general meaning of seeds, which is to try to avoid important matches early if at all possible within the boundaries of the rules.
Since Smith is considered the favorite to win the weight, there is no way to avoid "screwing" another good wrestler from having a match against him. But the eight seed is no good, and a source indicated the bracket was re-drawn a second time with Smith as the seven seed, which is better, but still not quite right.
Isaiah Hokit of Fresno State was the six seed, but he only wrestled six matches at 165, and just three in the Big 12. He did not earn a coaches rank or RPI, and has little chance of being awarded an at large bid if he does not place in the top five. His two wins were over Jeremy Thomas and Logan Peterson, two wins he shared with Fogarty.
The original bracket with Rogers in it had Hokit as the seven anyway, with Thomas as the eight. Going back to that would re-create the most accurate picture of the Big 12 this season. It would also mean Smith would have to "earn it the hard way" by having to go through the 3, 2, and 1 seeds in that order to win the tournament, which should at least placate the coaches some for the conference losing an allocation by swapping out Rogers.
No matter where he is placed, it is most realistic to assume that one of Kiussis or Fogarty will be on the outside looking in when it comes placing in a spot to earn the auto bid to NCAAs. Slotting Smith at the six puts him opposite Branson Ashworth, who unquestionably earned the one seed by going undefeated in conference. It also gives Fogarty and Kiussis a rematch in the quarters, allowing them to figure out on the mat who has a more favorable path to qualifying.
Listen to John Smith address the media on Tuesday, the day after Smith won the wrestle-off matches against Rogers.