2019 Cliff Keen Las Vegas Collegiate Wrestling Invitational

Pre-CKLV Hodge Rankings Update

Pre-CKLV Hodge Rankings Update

Updating the Hodge rankings for the 2019-20 season ahead of this weekend's Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational.

Dec 5, 2019 by Nomad Lobdell
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A lot has happened in the five weeks since we published our Hodge preseason rankings. So with the biggest tournament of the year starting tomorrow, why not update them?

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A lot has happened in the five weeks since we published our Hodge preseason rankings. So with the biggest tournament of the year starting tomorrow, why not update them?

Watch 2019 Cliff Keen Las Vegas LIVE on Flo

December 6-7 | 12:00 PM Eastern

The biggest stories are Seth Gross losing to Austin DeSanto in Carver-Hawkeye, and Gable Steveson being removed from the rankings as he has not competed this year. Beyond that, any movement is based upon results so far this season. Here's a quick overview of the contenders' stats to this point:

RankNameSchoolWinsPinTechMajor
1Zahid ValenciaArizona State5310
2Spencer LeeIowa3021
3Mark HallPenn State5302
4Austin DeSantoIowa3011
5Anthony CassarPenn State2100
6Vincenzo JosephPenn State2010
7Luke PletcherOhio State9204
8Kollin MooreOhio State9125
9Hayden HidlayNC State7121
10Alex MarinelliIowa3000

Beyond those basic stats, we'll be looking at several things to determine these rankings. They include dominance score, which treats every match like a dual meet and averages how many team points a wrestler accrues every time they step on the mat. Then there is pin percentage, a better determinant than just the total number of pins.

Additionally, we'll be looking at bonus rate, which divides a wrestler's total number of matches by the number of times they have a win by major, tech, or fall. Finally, there is the average time spent on the mat, a stat that is hard to rely upon early in the season, but as the year wears on will be a reliable indicator of how much the wrestlers are separated from their field.

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Until the NCAA tournament, it is difficult to determine an athlete's quality of competition besides using the rankings, which change every week. After the tournament, we will look at matches against national qualifiers and All-Americans for that metric.

Remember that besides CKLV, Penn State wrestles at Lehigh and hosts Penn in Rec Hall this week. The Nittany Lions have three guys that appear in these rankings right now. Let's review the pre-Cliff Keen Las Vegas rankings, which factor in a bit of projection for now.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Jack Mueller (Virginia), 125
  • Sebastian Rivera (Northwestern), 133
  • Nick Lee (Penn State), 141
  • Michael Kemerer (Iowa), 174

10) Alex Marinelli (Iowa), 165

Yes, he has no bonus this year. But he is undefeated against Vincenzo Joseph and has 14 career pins. He's also a huge part of Iowa's quest for their first national title in a decade and as we all know, storylines matter. If Iowa has one or more undefeated champs, be it the Bull, Kemdawg, or Spencer Lee, they'll likely all be Hodge finalists.

Dominance Score - 3

Bonus Rate - 0%

Average Time on Mat - 7:00

9) Hayden Hidlay (NC State), 157

Hidlay can make a big statement this weekend by taking out two of the following group: David Carr, Ryan Deakin, Kendall Coleman, or Will Lewan. That'll come in handy later in the year if he goes wire-to-wire #1 as I will eventually examine each undefeated champ's performance against the other All-Americans.

Dominance Score - 4.14

Bonus Rate - 57%

Average Time on Mat - 5:11

8) Kollin Moore (Ohio State), 197

Moore's raw stats are better than his teammate below us, so I'm fine if you switch them. But I believe Pletcher has been more impressive in his nine matches due to the quality of competition. One thing in Moore's favor is that he's pretty high on the list of guys most likely to go undefeated at their weight and therefore be a Hodge finalist.

Dominance Score - 4.33

Bonus Rate - 89%

Average Time on Mat - 6:36

7) Luke Pletcher (Ohio State), 141

Pletcher is in a bear of a weight this weekend, already has six bonus-point wins and five ranked victories thus far. If he runs the table, he'll have wins over Nick Lee, Chad Red, Mitch McKee, Dom Demas, and more. There's a case to be made that Lee should be on this list, and the next update may include him depending on how 141 shakes out in Vegas.

Dominance Score - 4.11

Bonus Rate - 67%

Average Time on Mat - 6:53

6) Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State), 165

Last year, Joseph started out 10-0 with eight falls. His bonus rate has gone up every year, and he tripled his number of pins last year. But he's never had an undefeated season, and Marinelli is 2-0 against him.

Dominance Score - 4

Bonus Rate - 50%

Average Time on Mat - 6:31

5) Anthony Cassar (Penn State), 285

With Gable a massive question mark to return, it seems like Cassar has separated himself from the field quite a bit. He'll have #10 Jordan Wood on Friday night, someone he majored last year in the dual. The biggest thing holding him back is that he won't have any perceived marquee, pound-for-pound wins and other guys have more career accolades.

Dominance Score - 4.5

Bonus Rate - 50%

Average Time on Mat - 5:50

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4) Austin DeSanto (Iowa), 133

The vast majority of DeSanto's Hodge case rests on his way over previous #1 Seth Gross, which is a huge feather in his cap, as quality of competition is a component in the trophy's criteria. He could have to beat Gross as many as three more times this year, as well as Roman Bravo-Young. He'll also have to pick up some falls, of which he only has four in his career against Division I opponents.

Dominance Score - 4

Bonus Rate - 67%

Average Time on Mat - 6:06

3) Mark Hall (Penn State), 174

Our top three is made up with guys who spent most of their high school careers at the top of their respective grade's big board. Hall won the title as a freshman and made the finals the past two years, but is finally in position to have an undefeated season. Michael Kemerer is not on this list, but is Hall's main competition and likely someone the PSU senior will have to beat three times in 2020.

Dominance Score - 5.2

Bonus Rate - 100%

Average Time on Mat - 4:11

2) Spencer Lee (Iowa), 125

For now, Spencer is behind Zahid. He has one less year of data to work with and is in a weight class that on paper is not perceived to be as deep as 184. Additionally, he has no pins thus far (though he has only wrestled three matches), but that will pick up soon. To make up for that, his average time spent on the mat is only behind Zahid and Mark Hall this year.

Dominance Score - 4.67

Bonus Rate - 100%

Average Time on Mat - 4:22

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1) Zahid Valencia (Arizona State), 184

Let's be very clear, with Gross dropping a match to DeSanto, the Hodge is Zahid's to lose. He has more pins than Spencer, twice as many titles and a winning record over Mark Hall, and a better dominance score and bonus rate than DeSanto and Cassar. He, Spencer, and Cenzo are the only guys with two titles, and Zahid has seven other top-10 guys in his bracket this weekend in Vegas.

Dominance Score - 5.2

Bonus Rate - 80%

Average Time on Mat - 4:13