Earlier in the week I broke down the five matchups that I think could decide Iowa State vs Oklahoma State. Northern Iowa is set up a little differently. The matchups just naturally line up well for Oklahoma State to win the dual, but there is a reasonable map you could draw for the Panthers to pull off the upset.

UNI will be a heavy favorite at 174, 184, and 285, so they just need two or three other matches, and to limit bonus points as well. 

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Here are the five crucial ones that could flip it in favor of Northern Iowa.

133-Jack Skudlarczyk-UNI vs Reece Witcraft-OSU

Big match for both these guys in the broader scheme of improving their Big 12 seed and shot at qualifying for the NCAA tournament. It’s also big for the dual. On paper these two are about as even as you’ll see in this dual, and it’s really one that could go either way. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. On the road in a tough environment like UNI’s West Gym, this one should be good.

141-Michael Blockhus-UNI vs Dusty Hone-OSU

Hone has just been this steady consistent piece for Oklahoma State this season. He’s in his second year coming off of his LDS mission, a bit older than most of these other guys, and it’s hard to see him giving up what would be a slight upset here. It’s a match where the freshman Blockhus certainly has the talent level to pull it off, though. It’s definitely a contrasting storyline of wrestlers. Can the steady 24-year-old Hone hold off the talented freshmen on his home turf? We’ll find out.

149-Max Thomsen-UNI vs Boo Lewallen-OSU

Boo Lewallen has a 2-1 edge in this series to this point and brings an undefeated record into this one. Thomsen won their first college matchup and has taken a few losses to this point in the season. This is still one that could end up being a tight one. I like what I’ve personally seen from Boo a lot this season and think he’s driving towards some big goals in March, but Thomsen is an All-American and a guy who could give him some trouble here.

197-Jacob Holschlag-UNI vs Dakota Geer-OSU

Holschlag has been injured most of the season and wrestled only on Nov. 17 vs Northwestern, where he injury-defaulted out of the dual, on January 12 vs Northern Colorado, and in their last dual vs Air Force where he picked up his first win of the season 7-4. On the surface, you might expect Geer to roll over the hobbled Holschlag, but it’s hard to completely discount a guy in Holschlag who finished fifth at the NCAA tournament two years ago, while taking out Ben Darmstadt, Willie Miklus, Chris Weiler, Daniel Chaid, and others. 

125, 157, 165, 174, 184 & 285

All right, so I agree it’s a bit ridiculous for me to lump the entire rest of the lineup into this one final “matchup that could flip the dual” category, but here’s how I see it. OSU is heavily favored at ‘25, ‘57, and ‘65 while UNI is heavily favored at ‘74, ‘84, and 285. If the guys that are supposed to win do win and there’s some sort of split on the four listed above, it will naturally come down to bonus, and every one of these matches could result in bonus. Upsets in any of these would likely completely flip the dual to that school’s favor.

Seth Duckworth is a Stillwater-based writer who covers Oklahoma State University wrestling for Pistols Firing Blog, the best OSU news and community site on the internet. Follow Seth on Twitter.