The defending national champions Iowa Hawkeyes returned their entire starting lineup this season. Under normal circumstances, they'd be the prohibitive favorites to repeat in 2022. 

But Penn State head coach Cael Sanderson does not care for such so-called normal circumstances. The Nittany Lions return four national champions themselves and are poised to give the Hawkeyes a run for their money. 

Going by the current NCAA ranking, the Nittany Lions are, in fact, slight favorites to reclaim college wrestling's greatest prize. But rankings are not predictions, they are a snapshot of the landscape using previous results as a guide.

Things can and will change. For instance, Penn State just now officially added former Cental Michigan All-American Drew Hildebrandt to their roster. So let's look ahead, and see how that addition will affect the team race at the 2022 NCAA Championships in Detroit. 

We'll first start with the projected starting lineups. 

Iowa & Penn State's Projected Starting Lineups

With all due respect, there are two Goliaths in college wrestling right now: the Hawks and the Lions. Anything could still happen between now and mid-March, but for our analysis, the team title is a two-horse race.

Below are the projected postseason starting lineups of Iowa and Penn State, along with current rankings. 

According to our team tournament scoring rubric, which assigns advancement and placement points based on rank (but does not factor in potential bonus points), the final team scores would be Penn State 110.5, Iowa 105.

But the NCAA tournament is not settled by rankings. It is not decided by a computer! At least not yet, we'll see what the Metaverse has to say about that. 

But also this list of probables doesn't factor in Drew Hildebrant's points. He'll be ranked when the next set of D1 college rankings come out, so we should take a moment to factor in Drew's impact.

Factoring In Drew Hildebrandt's Impact On Team Race

Hildebrandt brings a hefty assortment of accolades from his time at Central Michigan to the Penn State wrestling room. 

Hailing from Granger, Indiana, Hildebrandt was a four-year letterman for the Chippewas. He placed in the top three at the MAC Championships in all four seasons, winning titles in 2020 and 2021. 

Drew qualified for three NCAA tournaments with his highest placement coming last March when he finished fourth. Hildebrandt also received the six seed in the canceled 2020 tournament and went 1-2 in the 2019 championships. 

Watch highlights of Hildebrandt winning in the quarterfinals of the 2021 NCAA Championships, guaranteeing himself a spot on the podium:

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Now to figure out how many extra points to pencil into Penn State's total, we must first determine how Hildebrant fits into the rankings.

How Hildebrandt Fits Into The Rankings

The Nittany Lions are currently without representation in the top 24 of the latest 125-pound rankings, but that will soon change. However, Hildebrandt will not start his final season ranked as high as he finished in the last season.

The last NCAA tournament didn't feature Nick Suriano, Vito Arujau, and Pat Glory, all of whom are ranked ahead of last year's runnerup, Sun Devil Brandon Courtney.

Additionally, last year's third-placer, Pat McKee, who defeated Hildebrandt for that honor, is ranked ninth. McKee dropped in the rankings after a loss to Oklahoma State's Trevor Mastrogiovanni in a dual meet last month. 

Further complicating matters is the fact that Taylor LaMont, who placed fifth at NCAAs, is ranked sixth, and has only wrestled two matches this season. Also, Hildebrandt's only two losses at the NCAAs were to McKee and eventual champion Spencer Lee. 

Figure that by next week, Hildebrandt will be ranked seventh (although we reserve the right to change our minds by the time the next set of rankings get released), which adds 6.5 points to Penn State's hypothetical team tournament total. Four for placement and 2.5 for advancement. 

Which makes the new head-to-head team score: Penn State 117, Iowa 105.

But those final scores are not etched in stone. What else could change between now and March?

But What Else Could Change Between Now And March?

Wow, great question. Let's start by maxing out the potential points for Iowa and Penn State. We'll try to be as reasonable as possible, as the literal maximum for each weight is first place, which would make for a stupendously pretty boring exercise if we predicted 10 first-place finishes for each team!

So please keep in mind that these projections are MAXIMUM potential finishes. It doesn't mean they are likely to happen. Indeed, the odds are infinitesimally small that all these placements will occur. What we're attempting to discern is the absolute ceiling for both teams. 

Penn State Max

Hildebrandt could conceivably place higher, but with all the hammers returning to 125, we went a tad conservative and put his ceiling at five. 

RBY, Nick Lee, Starocci and Brooks already maxed out by winning last year. We wouldn't put it beyond the realm of possibility that Dean beats Ferrari (and the rest of the division), though we are limiting Kerkvliet to second place behind Steveson (for the purpose of this exercise anyway. It's not literally impossible!).

Joe Lee (or Tony Negron) both have high potential but we're thinking R16 is a fair upper bound. Likewise, Edsell can go toe-to-toe with the best of them, but stringing together four or five wins at the NCAAs seems like a bridge too far, so we're capping him at 12. 

Bartlett has a higher ceiling, but just about all his wins this year have been razor thin, and that tends to catch up with you at NCAAs. He could for sure place higher, but maximum reasonable potential (if you were laying a bet) we think is about seventh. 

Anyway, it's not worth getting too hung up on these projections. We don't think most of them will actually happen but we also wouldn't be terribly surprised if some placed even higher! 

Now on to Iowa's max. 

Iowa Max

Lee is the favorite to win 125, and DeSanto, Eierman, and Kemerer have all literally beaten last year's champs before. Marinelli is 0-1 against Griffith but is 3-1 against Vincenzo Joseph, so we think a maximum of first place is quite reasonable. 

Kaleb Young has placed fifth before. We nudged Max Murin up to fifth in a fairly wide-open weight class (after the top several guys anyway). Abe Assad has a win over last year's third placer, Parker Keckeisen. Warner has wins comparable to last year's runner-up, Nino Bonaccorsi. 

And can Cassioppi conceivably improve on last year's third-place finish and beat Mason Parris? We think its possible, though perhaps not likely. 

So maximum, best-case scenario, Iowa could have as many as 162 points at the NCAAs. A good amount more than Penn State's ceiling of 136. 

But that doesn't mean Iowa is more likely to score more points than Iowa at the NCAAs. The maximum points exercise is more about showing how exciting the team race will potentially be in Detroit, rather than determining who is more likely to win. 

All of which is to say that Drew Hildebrandt increases Penn State's odds as the favorite for the time being. However, Iowa is far from eliminated from contention, and very well could repeat as champions.  

So You're Saying Hildebrant Increases Penn State's Odds of Winning The National Title But Iowa Is Still Very Much In The Running? 

That's right.

And that'll do it for this edition of 'Bloggin About NCAAs'. Thanks for reading and see you next time!