Bottom Half Is Ridiculous - 85kg Preview
Aug 15, 2016
Full Olympic Brackets on FloArena here!
The video above was shot before brackets were released, but here is the immediate reaction for those.
The Contenders
#1 Zhan Beleniuk (UKR) - defending world and European champ#5 Saman Tahmasebi (AZE) - 5x world medalist
Beleniuk has an absolute cakewalk to the finals from the top half of this bracket. His road includes No. 20 Ahmed Mohamed Saad (EGY), No. 14 Nikolai Bayrakov (BUL) and No. 13 Javid Hamzatov (BLR). There is no reason to think any of those opponents will be favored against Beleniuk, but this is the Olympics so we can't rule out any upsets.
Meanwhile, the bottom half of the bracket is completely ludicrous. Of the 13 wrestlers, 10 are ranked in the world, including numbers 2-6, as well as 8 and 9. In a field like that, you have to take the savvy veterans to navigate through. I like Saman Tahmasebi to come out of the bottom half, but there are really as many as six guys who could see it through to the finals.
The Dark Horses
#3 Davit Chakvetadze (RUS) - 2015 Euro Games and Golden Grand Prix champ#4 Rustam Assakalov (UZB) - 2015 world silver medalist and 2014 Asian Games champ
As mentioned above, the bottom half of the field is filled with landmines. I don't believe Chakvetadze would be able to punch his way to the finals, but I do believe he can do damage on the backside. He would need to go through the likes of Habibollah Aklaghi (IRI) and then either Denis Kudla (GER) or Robert Kobliashvili (GEO) just to make the bronze medal match though, so it won't be any picnic.
To meet Chakvetadze in the bronze medal match, it really comes down to last year's silver medalist Rustam Assakalov (UZB) or Viktor Lorincz (HUN). Both of these countries had a medalist on day one, but for now I am leaving towards Assakalov. His performance last year at worlds is too hard to ignore, but that could change come match time.
The other half is much less fun to predict. Beleniuk is a massive favorite to make the finals, and I don't think his first round opponent from Egypt can win his repechage match to get to the bronze medal bout. That leaves us with Hamzatov and Bayrakov. Smart money says to take the earlier qualifier first, so we're going with Bayrakov, who qualified out of Europe, in a close match with Hamzatau, who got in via the Mongolian last chance qualifier.
How Ben Provisor Can Medal
The American in this weight class ended up on the tougher, bottom half, and has the world silver medalist Assakalov first. Provisor will have to wrestle the tournament of his life, and need some help. He'll be relying on himself to have a good cut and refuel, and hope some of his opponents have a bad cut or don't get adjusted to the time zone.
Unlike many Greco weights, the guys at 85kg tend to attack more in neutral. Provisor is coming up a weight, and struggled holding ground early on in this Olympic year. He'll need to force the pace and get opportunities on top to make his way through the buzzsaws on his side.
Ultimately, Provisor will have to get lucky somewhere. His opponent slips off balance and he gets a takedown or pin, or the officials give him a questionable four that is held up on review. It's not the draw the American fans wanted, but this is the Olympics. Everyone is tough and you will have to go through ranked guys or a world medalist somewhere along the line.
Predictions
GOLD: Zhan Beleniuk, Ukraine
SILVER: Saman Tahmasebi, Azerbaijan
BRONZE: Rustam Assakalov, Uzbekistan
BRONZE: Nikolai Bayrakov, Bulgaria
FIFTH: Davit Chakvetadze, Russia
FIFTH: Javid Hamzatau, Belarus
Olympic Wrestling Previews:
Men's Freestyle: 57KG | 65KG | 74KG | 86KG | 97KG | 125KGWomen's Freestyle: 48KG | 53KG | 63KG | 75KG
Greco Roman: 59KG | 75KG | 85KG (Coming 8/14) | 130KG
Top Matches Of Olympians:
Men's Frestyle: Daniel Dennis | Frank Molinaro | Jordan Burroughs J'den Cox | Kyle Snyder | Tervel Dlagnev
Greco Roman: Jesse Thielke | Andy Bisek | Robby Smith | Ben Provisor (Coming 8/14)
Women's Freestyle: Haley Augello | Helen Maroulis | Elena Pirozhkova | Adeline Gray
Know A Foreign Hammer:
Toghrul Asgarov | Roman Vlasov | Taha AkgulSaori Yoshida | Anzor Boltakaev | Abdulrashid Sadulaev
Anuiar Gedeuv | Erica Wiebe | Soronzonbold Battsetsegg
Hamid Soryan | Vladimir Khinchegashvili
2016 Olympic Wrestling Schedule
How To Watch Olympic Wrestling:
Day 10 (Aug. 15): Prelims : Mat A | Mat B | Mat C | Finals
Day 11 (Aug. 16): Prelims : Mat A | Mat B | Mat C | Finals
Day 12 (Aug. 17): Prelims : Mat A | Mat B | Mat C | Finals
Day 13 (Aug. 18): Prelims : Mat A | Mat B | Mat C | Finals
Day 14 (Aug. 19): Prelims : Mat A | Mat B | Mat C | Finals
Day 15 (Aug. 20): Prelims : Mat A | Mat B | Mat C | Finals
Day 16 (Aug. 21): Prelims : Mat A | Mat B | Mat C | Finals
